NFL Week 17 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

Week 16 was much of the same for our valuable underdogs this season, but with a twist. The Saints came back from 10-0 to beat Cleveland, and the Patriots appeared ready to top that with a goal-to-go situation left to complete a 22-point comeback. Then Rhamondre Stevenson had his forward progress stopped, no whistle blew, and he fumbled away New England's chances. Later on Christmas Eve, the Eagles blew multiple 10-point leads in Dallas, and our 'dogs finished 2-3.

Finding viable underdogs is most difficult at the end of the season. Inferior teams aren't just perceived that way - they actually are inferior - so the betting market is more accurate. These clubs are also less likely to play above their weight at this time of year, with nothing to play for beyond pride.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like against the spread in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Panthers +135

Normally, we'd loathe to give out the Panthers at such a small price. But this late in the season, we have to trust what we've seen week after week. In this case, it's that the Buccaneers are a bad football team. If you sweat out Tampa Bay teaser legs on Christmas night - or have seen any other Bucs game this season - you know this squad can't protect Tom Brady long enough for him to throw accurately deep. A sub-standard offensive line doesn't allow the Bucs to run the ball effectively, either.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have a dominant run game, which can only be taken away when the opponent takes an early lead. That's not what the Bucs do, as they have the second-fewest first-half points (eight) this season. Carolina has averaged 15.25 points in the first half in its 3-1 run with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Plus, Tampa Bay's run defense has been poor in 2022, giving up 4.5 yards per carry, including 5.3 to James Conner last week.

Cardinals +150

Colt McCoy is back behind center for the Cardinals in a meaningless game in Atlanta. His presence should revive DeAndre Hopkins - who Trace McSorley wasn't able to use in a near-win versus Tampa Bay - against the Falcons' fourth-worst passing offense on a per-attempt basis.

Desmond Ridder showed improvement statistically in Baltimore last week, but Drake London helped that with some impressive catches in the cold. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has shown an ability to turn his opponents over, so Ridder might finally be baited into his first interception.

Saints +200

This point spread is on the move, going from Eagles -7 down underneath a touchdown, which confirms the suspicion that Jalen Hurts will miss another game. Gardner Minshew wasn't the reason Philadelphia lost in Dallas - the defense was. Injuries are mounting, and though we don't expect the Saints' offense to rack up 400-plus yards, the Eagles are still consistently giving up 4.6 yards per rush. New Orleans will need Chris Olave back at receiver, and Marshon Lattimore's return would be critical defensively.

Rams +240

The more we see from Kevin Stefanski - who had Deshaun Watson throw 31 times in the wind last week - and the less we see of Matt Rhule, the more likely we are to owe Baker Mayfield an apology. It took no time for Mayfield to click with a legitimate offensive mind in Sean McVay. With the Rams' stars out, the rest of the roster is full of players working for their next contract, meaning McVay and the team are energized. Meanwhile, the Chargers come home to this neutral-site game on a short week after clinching their first playoff spot in five years. The Rams could jump on their SoFi Stadium counterparts in a modest letdown.

Steelers +125

Let's not be fooled by the Ravens covering a big number last week - Tyler Huntley completed nine passes. With Lamar Jackson nowhere to be found, the Steelers should hold up against the run and get their second chance at Huntley after knocking him out of the first meeting.

Kenny Pickett had to leave that game, too, only to see Mitch Trubisky throw three interceptions in plus-territory. That Ravens road win was just the second Steelers loss in the eight games that T.J. Watt has played this season, so look for Pittsburgh to exact revenge in Baltimore and keep its season alive.

Here's how the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
ARZ+CAR+NO	+2000
ARZ+CAR+LAR	+2100
ARZ+CAR+PIT	+1400
ARZ+NO+LAR	+2800
ARZ+NO+PIT	+1800
ARZ+LAR+PIT	+1900
CAR+NO+LAR	+2600
CAR+NO+PIT	+1700
CAR+LAR+PIT	+1800
NO+LAR+PIT	+2300
ARZ+CAR+NO+LAR+PIT	+16000

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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