NHL Tuesday best bets: Home cooking

We have a jam-packed 11-game slate Tuesday night. Let's take a look at a couple of home sides that stand out as we try to start the new year on a positive note.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are playing fantastic hockey. They've won seven of their last 10 games and are full value for their success.

In that time, the Leafs picked up marquee wins over the Tampa Bay Lightning, Dallas Stars, and Colorado Avalanche - all of whom they beat by at least three goals - and posted some remarkably good underlying metrics.

At five-on-five, the Maple Leafs controlled 61.14% of the expected goal share and 63.54% of the high-danger opportunities during this 10-game stretch. Both of those totals comfortably rank first in the NHL.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to recognize that the Leafs - with all their firepower - will win significantly more often than not when consistently generating more chances than their opponents.

There's every reason to believe that'll be the case against the St. Louis Blues. They rank 27th in expected goal share over the last 10 and recently lost three important players - Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Torey Krug - for the foreseeable future.

Those absences leave the Blues very thin at center and on defense while also taking a lot of life out of their attack.

I expect the Blues will spend a lot of time on their heels in this game, and I don't think their 28th-ranked goaltending is close to good enough to compensate.

Look for the Leafs to pick up a multi-goal victory on home ice.

Bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-105)

The Ottawa Senators sit well outside of the playoffs, but don't let that fool you - they're a pretty good hockey team.

The Sens are on a nice 7-3-1 run over the last 11 games and have steamrolled opponents at five-on-five during that stretch, ranking seventh with a high-danger chance share above 55%.

A nice bonus for the Senators is that their power play has also been firing on all cylinders. Only the Edmonton Oilers - led by the best offensive duo in the NHL - scored more power-play goals over the last 11 games.

With Tim Stutzle healthy again, the floor and ceiling of this Senators team dramatically increase.

That spells trouble for a bad Columbus Blue Jackets team dealing with an absurd amount of injuries. Although Patrik Laine and Cole Sillinger recently returned to the lineup, the Blue Jackets are still missing a pair of top-six forwards and half of their defensive core. That's problematic considering they weren't a good team to begin with.

Only the Anaheim Ducks conceded high-danger chances at a higher rate than the Blue Jackets over the last 10 games. That means Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Alex DeBrincat, and Co. should be able to generate more than their fair share of good looks.

I expect them to make it count en route to a win inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Senators in regulation (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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