NHL Wednesday best bets: Wild, Lightning to play it tight
Tuesday night was a solid one on the ice. While we split our best bets, two of our three shot props came through - with William Nylander falling one shy of a sweep - to earn us a winning night.
Let's keep the ball rolling with three plays for Wednesday's modest NHL slate.
Lightning (-105) @ Wild (-115)Though this game features plenty of high-end offensive players, it's the under that stands out.
The goaltending matchup between Andrei Vasilevskiy and Filip Gustavsson is a very good one. Vasilevskiy owns a .921 save percentage through 26 appearances and enters this contest scorching hot. He's conceded two goals or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts and posted save percentages above league average in the two exceptions.
Vasilevskiy isn't giving opponents any freebies and is keeping the Lightning in every game. With Tampa Bay on the latter half of a road back-to-back, the team will no doubt try to slow things down and let Vasilevskiy take care of the rest.
Gustavsson, meanwhile, has played surprisingly well this year, recording a .920 save percentage through 14 appearances in his debut season with the Wild. He's stopped 0.424 goals above expected per start - good for 14th among 62 NHL goaltenders who have played in at least 10 games.
The goaltending should be sound in this game. But, quite frankly, neither netminder should be tested to the extreme.
Minnesota ranks third in high-danger chance suppression over the last 10 games. Only the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights have been better at five-on-five during that stretch.
Tampa Bay has been stout in its own right, sitting top 10 in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes over the same period.
With both teams limiting Grade A looks and a strong matchup between the pipes, don't expect a ton of scoring in this game.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-125)
Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-140)The Ducks are quickly entering Blue Jackets territory when it comes to surrendering shots to opposing defensemen. Anaheim is now giving up more than 11 shots per game to opposing blue-liners, joining Columbus (11.03) as the only other team above that mark.
The Ducks haven't caught up to the Blue Jackets because the latter have stiffened up; Anaheim's struggles have just reached new heights. The Ducks have conceded 12.1 shots per game to defensemen over their last 10 contests, putting them nearly 1.5 shots clear of the next-closest team in that time.
Suffice it to say, Miro Heiskanen finds himself in a mouth-watering spot Wednesday when the Stars visit the Ducks - and he's more than capable of taking advantage.
A dark horse for the Norris Trophy, Heiskanen has recorded 56 shot attempts over his last 10 games. Only seven defensemen - including Cale Makar, Roman Josi, and other elite offensive rearguards - have bested him in that time.
Look for Heiskanen to keep shooting against a putrid Ducks team.
Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots (-110)Joel Eriksson Ek - like many we target for shots - is more efficient at generating them on home ice.
The underrated two-way pivot has averaged 5.3 shot attempts per game over his last 10 in Minnesota compared to 4.4 attempts per road game this season.
Furthering Eriksson Ek's appeal in this spot is the stylistic matchup. He doesn't seem to pile up many shots against porous defenses that allow the Wild's top players to embrace a run-and-gun style. He's at his best in slow, methodical, grind-it-out games - which is what we should see in Wednesday's tilt against the Lightning.
Examining Eriksson Ek's recent shot-volume history, he's gotten the job done against the Flames, Stars, and Predators while falling short against less structured teams like the Blackhawks and Red Wings.
Eriksson Ek has also fared well against the Lightning over the years, generating four shots or more in four of his last six contests versus Tampa Bay.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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