NFL Week 18 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

You can't coach the teams for them. That's been a consistent theme this season, as we've seen seemingly more blown leads than ever before. The Panthers led the Buccaneers 14-0, but Tom Brady found Mike Evans on a basic go route not once but three times past C.J. Henderson.

The Panthers collapsed, and a 50-50 game between the Cardinals and Falcons went the wrong way, so it was another 2-3 week even after a dramatic Steelers road win in the final minute versus the Ravens.

If you thought last week was tricky, may I introduce you to Week 18 - the two wackiest words in football betting.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like against the spread in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Raiders +340

Anything can happen in Week 18, and as much as we assume the Chiefs will be trying their hardest, that effort level still had them in trouble twice against the Broncos and in overtime with the Texans in the last four weeks.

More importantly, let's point out a lack of congruency on this week's trip to #ValueTown. The Chiefs were -7 at home to the Raiders earlier in the season. While you might suggest there's a drop-off in rating for the Raiders since then, +7 on the road would convert to just over a field goal underdog at home. Since that moneyline would be around +160, we'll take double that on a Raiders team that showed life against the best defense in the league last week.

Titans +220

If you've followed this piece each week, you know we want to traffic in uncertainty and high-volatility variance. That's what the Titans are bringing to the party on Saturday night.

Joshua Dobbs showed flashes of capability against the Cowboys last week without getting much help from his receivers and missing Tennessee's greatest weapon. For his career, Derrick Henry averages 118 total yards per game against the Jaguars - his best against any team he's faced more than three times. With a week and a half for the ultra-smart Dobbs to focus on a game plan, the Titans should have more success on offense than with Malik Willis.

In the past, we've seen that Mike Vrabel has pieced enough together defensively - even shorthanded - to make enough plays to keep a big game like this interesting late. One big turnover off young Trevor Lawrence could swing an upset.

Panthers +160

We're not going to overthink the only game on the board where neither team is playing for anything - playoff seeding or first overall pick position - but both are going to play their starters anyway.

Given the circumstances, this is a coin-flip game where we're getting +160 on one side. The Panthers discovered their smash-mouth style late in the season, so I expect Carolina to still play hard in the finale - hitting a disappointed veteran Saints team repeatedly on the ground. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton won't be able to take advantage of the hole in the Carolina secondary that Brady and Evans exposed last week.

Rams +240

The last two games are somewhat tied together, deep in the heart of #ValueTown. Maybe this line should convert to -9.5 based on the earlier meeting in the season (Seahawks -6.5 in L.A.). But with Baker Mayfield running the Rams' offense, L.A. is more than three points better than with John Wolford, based on recent point spreads.

Lacking a first-round draft pick again, the Rams have no reason not to try this week in a bid to play spoiler. Admittedly, we said that last week, but L.A. was victimized by explosive plays and turnovers, despite continuing to run the ball well. The Rams logged 171 rushing yards in the first meeting against Seattle, even when they didn't get much at quarterback.

Lions +180

If the whole point of the RR MLP is to connect the wins together, then a Rams upset would have us spending the night in #ValueTown. Once the Lions get the hypothetical shot of life that a Seahawks loss would provide, you'll see this moneyline dip under +150 before kickoff. Rarely do we get the implied value of the price of one underdog moneyline attached to another, so when it's available, we have to make a play on it.

Here's how the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
LV+TEN+CAR	+3700
LV+TEN+LAR	+4700
LV+TEN+DET	+4000
LV+CAR+LAR	+3900
LV+CAR+DET	+3300
LV+LAR+DET	+4200
TEN+CAR+LAR	+2700
TEN+CAR+DET	+2300
TEN+LAR+DET	+2955
CAR+LAR+DET	+2400
LV+TEN+CAR+LAR+DET	+36300

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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