Wild Card Weekend storylines: 1 key question for every AFC playoff clash

The NFL playoffs have arrived. The Chiefs and Eagles get to rest this weekend while 12 teams battle Saturday through Monday in the wild-card round. Here's one storyline to watch in each of the AFC matchups.

(All times listed are Eastern. Click to read our breakdown of the NFC games.)

Chargers at Jaguars, Saturday at 8:15 p.m.
Is Jacksonville's defensive glow-up legit?

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The Jaguars gave up one touchdown and 22 points in the past three weeks to seal the AFC South title.

Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Joshua Dobbs were the quarterbacks they locked down in that stretch. Yawn. Back in late September, though, the Jags forced two Justin Herbert turnovers while routing the Chargers 38-10.

That was Jacksonville's last win for more than a month as its offense and defense struggled to click simultaneously. However, both units have excelled lately. Trevor Lawrence erased late deficits against the Ravens and Cowboys to key his team's surge in the standings. Thanks to the defense fortifying, the Jaguars finished the season ranked fourth in QB pressure rate, fifth in takeaways, and seventh in point differential (plus-54 to Los Angeles' plus-seven).

The Chargers mystified viewers this season. They barely beat the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Titans while those squads were stuck in late-year nosedives, then they lost to the Broncos in Week 18 despite opening the game with a full complement of starters. Denver, Tennessee, and Indianapolis prevented Herbert from throwing a touchdown pass. The popular preseason pick to win the AFC West went 1-5 against playoff teams and didn't threaten the Chiefs.

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L.A. lost three times in 2022 when Herbert's passer rating was higher than 100, either because he got little run support (the Chargers ranked 30th in rushing yardage) or because the defense faltered (21st in points against).

That said, Herbert is the brightest star in this matchup. The injuries that bedeviled the Chargers all season are mostly behind them, including Herbert's own fractured rib cartilage. Mike Williams won't play Saturday, but Herbert can spread the ball to three other 700-yard receiving targets in Josh Palmer, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler. Curtailing them has to be Jacksonville's first priority.

Dolphins at Bills, Sunday at 1 p.m.
Can Miami's defense slow Josh Allen?

The Dolphins' 21-19 win over the Bills in Week 3 was one of the season's stranger triumphs. Miami prevailed despite being outgained 497-212 in yards, possessing the pigskin for fewer than 20 minutes, and punting the ball off a teammate's butt for a self-inflicted safety. The Dolphins also blocked a field goal, strip-sacked Allen deep in Buffalo's end, and punched in touchdowns on both ensuing series.

The Bills moved upfield at will when they edged Miami 32-29 in Week 15. They failed to score 20 points just twice in 2022 and never lost by more than three points. Allen's efficiency slipped at times, but he passed and ran for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns for the second straight season. Only the Chiefs' aerial attack is more potent.

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The Dolphins ranked 24th in points allowed and 25th in DVOA against the pass, per Football Outsiders. The anemic Jets didn't find the end zone against them last weekend when Miami won for the first time since November despite Tua Tagovailoa's latest concussion absence. That win stemmed a five-game losing skid over which time Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the NFL's top receiver tandem, were less productive than usual.

Expect Skylar Thompson to struggle to feed them Sunday. Miami's rookie quarterback completed 57.1% of his pass attempts over seven appearances. Hill and Waddle combined to gain 67 receiving yards against the Jets in Week 18, lowering their season average to 180.4.

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Miami probably has to win the turnover battle to advance. The Dolphins ranked 30th in takeaways, but Buffalo committed more giveaways per game than every team except the Colts, paced by Allen's league-high 19 (14 picks, five lost fumbles).

Ravens at Bengals, Sunday at 8:15 p.m.
Can Baltimore avoid collapsing in the clutch?

The Bengals topped the Ravens 27-16 in Cincinnati last weekend to clinch home field for Sunday's elimination rematch. They led wire to wire, denying Baltimore the opportunity to try to hold a lead.

The Ravens blew a two-possession edge in five of their seven defeats this season. They squandered a fourth-quarter lead in every month except December. They lost winnable contests in the final minute against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Steelers. By expected points added per play, Baltimore fielded the NFL's No. 2 defense in the first 45 minutes of games and the worst in the league by a huge margin in the last frame, according to Ben Baldwin's database.

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By that measure, drawing Cincinnati in the playoffs is nightmarish. Joe Burrow led all passers in EPA/play in the fourth quarter and posted an elite 7.0 completion percentage over expectation, per Baldwin's data.

Burrow took 41 sacks this season but only 12 in the past eight games as the Bengals were unbeaten in that span. Burrow's hot, and the offensive line has been impenetrable, though right guard Alex Cappa joined right tackle La'el Collins on the injured list last weekend.

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Collapses aside, Baltimore's defensive profile is strong. The Ravens ranked third in points against, fourth in third-down denial rate, and fifth in sacks. No AFC team has allowed fewer points per game (14.7) since Halloween when $100-million linebacker Roquan Smith arrived by trade. Going off passer rating, two of Burrow's three worst performances this season came against the Ravens.

In the second half of games this year, Baltimore QBs completed 59.4% of their passes with a 1:1 TD-INT ratio. Gaining the lead Sunday will be difficult with Lamar Jackson sidelined, but safeguarding it could be just as daunting.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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