NHL Monday best bets: Lightning to snap Kraken's streak

We have a full day of hockey ahead of us Monday. The action begins at 1 p.m. ET and runs almost the entire night.

Let's waste no time getting to our best bets.

On the surface, the Blues seem to be handling themselves just fine without Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko. Since the pair of top-six forwards went down with injuries on Dec. 31, St. Louis has managed a respectable 4-3 record.

Don't let the results fool you. The Blues haven't played well. They've controlled just 42% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, putting them behind all but the Coyotes, Blackhawks, and Ducks. Those are three teams heavily in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes.

St. Louis has struggled at both ends of the ice in that time. It ranks 30th in expected goal generation and is in the bottom 10 in xG prevention at five-on-five.

If not for unsustainably high shooting percentages, things would look bleaker for the Blues.

Despite not getting a lot of saves and losing some games lately, the Senators have played pretty well. Their expected goal share ranks just outside the top 10, sandwiching them between the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights.

Save for the last time out against a desperate Avalanche team, Ottawa has primarily controlled the run of play since the calendar flipped.

I expect the Senators to do that against this undermanned Blues squad. Given the goaltending they're getting from Jordan Binnington right now, Ottawa's struggles between the pipes will likely prove less costly.

Look for the Sens to get back in the win column Monday night.

Bet: Senators (-115)

The Kraken enter play riding an eight-game winning streak, having won the last seven on a historically good road trip.

It's been Seattle's offense leading the charge. The club found the back of the net 41 times in its last eight contests, scoring at least four goals in seven games.

Although they don't possess a true superstar, the Kraken have a deep and balanced forward group that gives you scoring on all four lines.

With all that said, this is a very unsustainable run. Seattle has scored on nearly 18% of their shots and netted 17 more goals than expected based on the shots and chances generated.

You may believe the Kraken have the talent to outproduce that of a normal team, as the Capitals have for years. But it's a stretch to think the gap should be anywhere close to this drastic.

Perhaps a date with the Lightning is the perfect spot for Seattle to start coming back down to earth.

The Bolts are playing some of their best hockey right now. No team has controlled a larger percentage of the high-danger chances at five-on-five over the past eight games.

Tampa Bay doesn't concede a whole lot of quality opportunities. When it does, the team has Andrei Vasilevskiy to bail them out. I don't think the Kraken can expect to have anywhere close to the same level of shooting success against one of the league's best netminders.

On the flip side, Seattle's goaltending is worrisome going up against the Lightning. No side has been more efficient than Tampa at generating high-danger opportunities over the last eight games, and we all know the team's firepower.

I don't see Martin Jones (.895 save percentage) or Philipp Grubauer (.885 save percentage) holding up against the chunk of top-tier chances they'll see.

Look for the Lightning to end the Kraken's winning streak.

Bet: Lightning (-130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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