NHL Saturday best bets: Big 'dogs and 50-50 games

We're bringing the NHL weekly betting guide to life for a loaded Saturday on the ice. Let's start with a pair of matinee games as those north of the border celebrate "Hockey Day in Canada," even if most of the value is south of the border.

It's never easy to start a day with a bet that'll probably lose, but that's the reality with an underdog this big. The Ducks are too big of an underdog. My numbers give Anaheim a 38% chance of winning in Buffalo.

The Sabres have run hot and cold this season, compiling a cold spell running eight contests and a six-game winning streak over the campaign. They've won just two of their last seven games, generating an average 50% high-danger chance rate at five-on-five over that time.

There's very little to like about the Ducks, as they sit last in the NHL in goal differential. They also own a league-worst expected goal (XG) share over their current 6-10 stretch. However, Anaheim is being priced as high as +240, which is an implied win probability of less than 30%. That makes the Ducks an ugly but long-term profitable play.

Pick: Ducks (play down to +200)

Later in the afternoon, we've got a more palatable underdog. I have the Lightning - available at +100 - as a slight favorite of 52.7% to win in a game lined like a coin flip.

After winning at a 62.5% rate before the Christmas break, Tampa Bay has since won nine of 12 games and are second in the NHL in both XG and high-danger chances shares at even strength.

Flames backers have been waiting for Jacob Markstrom's play to improve to his previous high level. His GSAx has dropped thanks to a minus-1.69 rate since the break. Meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy is as steady as ever, with negligible difference in his home/road splits.

Pick: Lightning (play up to -105)

The Panthers' even-strength metrics are good enough to make them the sixth-best team in my ratings. But for much of the season, they've refused to win games - largely due to terrible goaltending from Spencer Knight and Sergei Bobrovsky. Florida demoted Knight, and Bobrovsky left Thursday's game with an injury.

If the Panthers can get replacement-level goaltending from either Bobrovsky or Alex Lyon on Saturday, they can continue a push that's seen them go 6-3 with a trio of excusable road losses in Dallas, Vegas, and Toronto. Now just four points out of a playoff spot, Florida should edge the Wild. Minnesota is just 6-6 since the Christmas break, with sub-50% even-strength metrics in that time.

Pick: Panthers (play up to -135)

We don't like to rely on the finicky nature of goaltending in a one-game sample size. But in another 50-50-type game, we'll take Juuse Saros over whomever the Kings put in between the pipes.

The Predators netminder is second in GSAx this season, and his home splits are favorable with a 2.55 GAA and .921 save percentage. L.A. may have thought it found the answer to its horrendous goaltending in Pheonix Copley. However, his above-average December stats have turned into below-average January numbers.

Pick: Predators (-115)

Like our first game, we have another scary underdog that provides about 6% of value over a 100-game sample size. Unfortunately, they're only playing one contest Saturday night, but at odds longer than +200, the Blackhawks have to be the bet.

Since losing Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O'Reilly (and later Torey Krug), the Blues are 6-3, which makes no sense. The team's even-strength metrics have been among the worst in the NHL over that time. Chicago is also down near the bottom but has won five of its last six contests.

In a game between two bad teams whose recent results are over their heads, we'll take better than 2-to-1 odds on something closer to a coin flip than the market suggests.

Pick: Blackhawks (play down to +200)

Unlike the bets above, this is less a numbers play and more about the situation. The Avalanche are coming off a win in Vancouver last night and will be turning to backup goaltender Pavel Francouz for their final road game until after the All-Star break. While Alexandar Georgiev boasts a plus-7.55 GSAx this season, Francouz has played just moderately.

The Avs' even-strength metrics have been average this campaign. Maybe their power play can be the difference against the Kraken's weak link - the penalty kill. But Seattle has consistently found ways to beat better opponents since the calendar turned to 2023.

Pick: Kraken (-115)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.