Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?

A researcher from the Netherlands has gone viral for allegedly predicting the earthquake which struck Turkey and Syria, just three days before two massive quakes affected the region on Monday, February 6. From a report: On Friday, February 3, Frank Hoogerbeets posted on Twitter, "Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon)." The post was accompanied by a map highlighting the area Hoogerbeets expected to be affected by seismic activity. Hoogerbeets works for a research institute called the SSGEOS. The institute's purpose is "monitoring geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity." According to the SSGEOS, their monitoring activities are based on evidence that "specific geometry in the Solar System may cause larger earthquakes." On February 2, the SSGEOS posted an earthquake forecast which stated "Larger seismic activity may occur from 4 to 6 February, most likely up to mid or high 6 magnitude. There is a slight possibility of a larger seismic event around 4 February." The methodology and scientific rationale used by Frank Hoogerbeets and the SSGEOS are not universally accepted. The viral tweet has inspired a debate on Twitter as to the validity of the earthquake prediction. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), for an earthquake prediction to be legitimate, three criteria must be accurately predicted: 1.) the date and time; 2.) the location; and 3.) the magnitude. "Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake," says the USGS. "We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future."

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