Super Bowl LVII receiving props: Looking at reliable targets
In the AFC Championship Game, it seemed like the Chiefs' receiving corps systematically got decimated by injury, leaving the status of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney up in the air. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling temporarily silenced his haters, only to be lined at just 36.5 for Super Bowl LVII. There's a lot of uncertainty as to who will be prominent in the Chiefs' passing game.
As for the Eagles, we have a little more certainty from a player personnel perspective, but given that Philadelphia had their two playoff games and regular season finale all locked up at halftime, the recent numbers are somewhat skewed.
That said, when it comes to air strikes, there are enough betting markets that we can make a case for a handful of valuable bets.
Isiah Pacheco over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)With star cornerbacks like Darius Slay and James Bradberry, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Eagles allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Given the Chiefs' issues on the outside, that might not be a huge problem.
Particularly because Kansas City finally deployed Isiah Pacheco in the passing game against Cincinnati - possibly because of receiver depth issues. Pacheco caught five balls on six targets and played 12 more snaps than Jerick McKinnon - the tailback presumed to be the passing game option.
Pacheco's running style, shown in his role as kick returner, shows he's dangerous in the open field. The Eagles led the league in sacks this season, so Andy Reid's reputation for having an elaborate menu of screen plays should precede him, allowing Pacheco to get loose once or twice on a short pass.
Miles Sanders over 4.5 receiving yards (-115)The Chiefs gave up the most receptions to opposing tailbacks this season. The Bengals likely knew that, and targeted their running backs seven times in the AFC title game. They even went against tendency by throwing to Joe Mixon three times. I expect the Eagles to do the same by taking advantage of Miles Sanders in early-down matchups with the Chiefs' linebackers. With a short total, it may just take one reception for this to cash.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (-135)Whether it's touchdown, yardage, or receptions, Dallas Goedert has been a go-to bet throughout the postseason. A Week 10 injury that kept him out of five regular season games devalues a 702-yard season that might have turned into his first 1000-yard year.
Goedert's had five catches in each of the Eagles' two playoff games despite Jalen Hurts not needing to force the ball down the field because the game was already in hand. With what should be a tighter matchup, Hurts will rely even more on his underrated tight end.
DeVonta Smith anytime touchdown (+170)There are two advantages that the former Heisman Trophy winner has in yet another game on a big stage. The first is that the second-year star out of Alabama might be the more veteran player in his matchup against a Chiefs secondary that plays three rookie cornerbacks.
The second element that's game-specific is the assumption that the Chiefs' defensive coordinator will need to use a spy on Hurts, while also trying to mix in blitzes from every position in the back-seven. Quick screens to the outside will force the Chiefs' young corners to tackle, and in the red zone their interior defenders will be focused on Hurts' mesh with the Eagles' tailback. So whether it's a deep-shot or a play near the end zone, Smith is more likely than usual to score.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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