Super Bowl LVII rushing props: Will QBs call their own number?

Gone are the early '90s when Emmitt Smith and Thurman Thomas were just as important to the Cowboys' and Bills' chances of winning as Troy Aikman and Jim Kelly. As a result, there are approximately six different running backs that could score a touchdown, break a big run, or get the most carries in Super LVII.

This mix of capable but not critical tailbacks clouds the betting markets, but should one emerge Sunday, he'll likely clear his yardage totals by quite a bit, and a multi-touchdown game would provide a bigger payout than if he was a traditional featured back.

The Kenneth Gainwell situation

Last week, we jumped on a prop bet that we knew would be popular - the over on Kenneth Gainwell's rushing yards. Sure enough, that number's been on the move, rising from an open of 16.5 yards through 17.5 and now 19.5. We broke down the modest usage shift from Miles Sanders to Gainwell over the course of the season and through the first two games of the playoffs, but there may be a secondary reason why the number keeps increasing.

Sanders becomes a free agent this offseason, and the Eagles have shown little interest in giving a big second contract to tailbacks, as they're at the forefront in the trend of devaluing the position. Gainwell is only at the end of his second season and may have proved he's next season's No. 1 in the backfield.

Sanders will likely get the start, but with double-digit carries for Gainwell in both playoff games and a yardage total lined 30 yards below Sanders, it's Gainwell who has high-payout derivative markets that are relatively easily accomplished. You can take a unit and split it among a series of long-shot plays:

50-plus rushing yards (+1025)
Most rushing yards (+1400)
10-plus rush attempts (+1600)
30-plus-yard long rush (+1600)

Quarterbacks on the move?

Both teams conceded a lot of yards to quarterbacks on the ground this season. The Eagles allow 6.16 yards per carry, second most in the NFL, while the Chiefs allowed the third-most yards and fourth-most attempts to opposing QBs.

Jalen Hurts longest rush over 13.5 yards

Before he got hurt against the Bears in Week 15, Jalen Hurts had a rush longer than 13.5 yards in eight of 14 games. The Eagles played it safe with Hurts in the two contests against the Giants when the quarterback admitted he wasn't 100%, but he was back to 11 carries against the 49ers, including a 14-yard rush.

While he's obviously not trying to get knocked out of the Super Bowl, there is an element of "now or never" in the big game. With two more weeks of rest since taking on more contact in the NFC title game, Hurts should be more likely to extend a play for an extra yard or two, knowing there are five months of recuperation ahead.

Patrick Mahomes: 50-plus rushing yards (+825)

This is a long shot for a reason - Mahomes ran for 50 yards once all season, and there's the little matter of a much-publicized high-ankle sprain. However, that might actually make the Eagles less likely to worry about Mahomes' ability to scramble and create a couple of decent opportunities for straight-line running downfield.

The Eagles' ability to create pressure encourages scrambling - which is probably why they allowed so many yards to opposing quarterbacks - and Mahomes' ankle might be much better than it was two weeks ago.

I'd rather bet a little to win a lot on the idea that Mahomes' mobility could be something of a secret weapon. The rationale is that if the ankle is OK then it's really OK, but if it's not then it's not worth playing a unit-for-unit bet on his standard yardage total. If Mahomes is capable of going over 19.5 rushing yards, it's possible he can push it to 50, especially if he's unable to trust a banged-up receiving corps while Travis Kelce is surrounded.

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+110)

You'll have to shop for a plus-money price on Hurts, but even including a Week 18 game where Hurts was hesitant to run, he's 11-6 when it comes to anytime touchdowns this season, including scores in both playoff contests. The Eagles are willing to run multiple quarterback sneaks should they get anywhere near the goal line, and he's capable of scoring from much further out than that.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.