Trade grades: Rangers land Tarasenko, Blues wave white flag

Vladi's off to the Big Apple.

On Thursday afternoon, the New York Rangers acquired pending unrestricted free-agent forward Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Niko Mikkola from the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a conditional 2023 first-round pick, a conditional 2024 fourth-rounder, forward Sammy Blais, and defenseman Hunter Skinner.

The conditions: The first-rounder will be the later pick of New York's two 2023 firsts (their own and Dallas'), while the fourth-rounder becomes a third if the Rangers make the playoffs. Also of note: the Blues are retaining 50% of Tarasenko's remaining salary and cap hit. The Russian makes $7.5 million.

Let's dig into the two perspectives of the deal and some league-wide takeaways.

Rangers' side of the deal Steph Chambers / Getty Images

New York just landed its missing puzzle piece up front.

Before the trade, the Rangers' top six featured a world-class playmaker in Artemi Panarin, a proven sniper in Mika Zibanejad, two net-front menaces with scoring touch in Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider, and a reliable puck hound in Barclay Goodrow. The sixth guy? The replaceable Jimmy Vesey.

After the trade, the top six now includes a second high-end finisher in Tarasenko. His arrival takes the pressure off the so-called Kid Line - Filip Chytil between Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko - and opens the door for improvement both at five-on-five, where the Rangers rank 15th in the NHL in goals for per 60 minutes, and on the power play, where they rank 24th.

More specifically, the Rangers' top players hammer the slot area with passes. (Panarin is fourth among NHLers in passes to the slot per game, while defenseman Adam Fox ranks 15th.) And guess who loves to tee off on slot passes? Tarasenko, who's scored 30 goals six times and has a lightning-quick release.

Scott Rovak / Getty Images

Tarasenko scored 182 times in 395 games from 2014-15 through the 2018-19 season. Over that stretch, only Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares racked up more goals. Having undergone multiple shoulder surgeries over the past few years, Tarasenko, 31, is no longer that caliber of game-breaker. Yet the left-shooting right winger did establish a new career high in points last season (82 in 75 games) and pitched in 29 points in 38 contests this season for the Blues.

Mikkola, meanwhile, is a 6-foot-4 depth defenseman who'll join Braden Schneider on the Rangers' bottom pairing, bumping Ben Harpur to the press box. Teams tend to need eight or nine capable defensemen over long playoff runs, so Mikkola essentially kills two birds with one stone for New York.

The package going to St. Louis is fine. It sucks to depart with a 2023 first, but the Rangers had two. General manager Chris Drury certainly didn't overpay for Tarasenko, a Stanley Cup winner, and Mikkola. And acting this early helped Drury avoid an escalating bidding war in the final days before the deadline.

Grade: A-

Blues' side of the deal Scott Rovak / Getty Images

As a seller, you want to hang your hat on something in the return package.

In this instance, assuming nothing weird happens down the stretch and both the Rangers and Stars make the playoffs, Blues GM Doug Armstrong's crown jewel will be a mid-to-late first-rounder. That's a nice asset to hang your hat on if the rest of the package is juicy. That's unfortunately not the case here.

In other words, the Blues didn't hit a home run with this deal. It's at best a sliding double, and a single at worst.

I get that the market might not have been robust for Tarasenko, given the veteran's injury history and the no-trade protection baked into his contract. But a mid-to-late first, a mid-rounder, a fringe NHL forward (Blais), and a mediocre defense prospect (Skinner) for Tarasenko and the useful Mikkola doesn't deserve heaps of praise. And St. Louis lent a hand by retaining salary.

From afar, there are a few reasons why this move, at this time, makes sense for Armstrong. Tarasenko, who wasn't re-signing with the Blues this coming offseason, was exposed in the Seattle expansion draft in 2021 and had seemingly been in the rumor mill for years. Everybody knew he was available; few wanted him. So, it was time to rip the Band-Aid off and wave the white flag for this dreadful season - St. Louis is nine points out of the playoffs - and the 2019 Cup-winning core. Ryan O'Reilly and Ivan Barbashev could be next.

Armstrong knows Blais, a former Blue. Familiarity helps. I'm sure the scouting staff sees something in Skinner. Overall, though, the return was nothing special.

Grade: C+

League-wide takeaways Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

The deadline is three weeks away, and already Tarasenko and center Bo Horvat have changed addresses. The premium forward market is thinning.

There's no guarantee Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews waive their no-trade clauses, but they very well could hit the trade block at some point before March 3. The Rangers had been linked to Kane, in particular, and opted to pounce on Tarasenko instead. They got ahead of it. How do their rivals react?

Do GMs panic and overpay for one of the Chicago Blackhawk forwards? Chase after O'Reilly on the Blues? End up with a second-tier rental forward?

Another trickle-down from the Tarasenko deal (and, to a lesser extent, the Horvat move) is that it provides a roadmap for a Timo Meier trade. It's not quite apples to apples: The San Jose Sharks star winger is a pending restricted free agent, not a UFA; he's also five years younger and more productive than Tarasenko. Still, there are enough similarities to compare the two transactions.

The Sharks should be able to reel in an equivalent package to what the Blues received for Tarasenko and Mikkola, plus another significant asset, whether it be a second first-rounder or blue-chip prospect. Yep, Meier won't be cheap.

Buckle up.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

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