NFL Draft betting: All that goes into handicapping the No. 1 pick market
Since the Texans' touchdown on fourth-and-20 and subsequent two-point conversion, the Bears organization has embarked on a "Choose Your Own Adventure."
After the first chapter of popular children's books in the 80s and 90s, readers had to pick a path to take for the rest of their story. Unlike previous NFL Drafts where the league's worst team had a pretty obvious move - like taking premier quarterbacks for the Bengals in 2020 and Jaguars in 2021 or picking their best player available as Jacksonville did in 2022 - Chicago's decision is a true fork in the road.
The first is whether the team's future is in Justin Fields or a top quarterback prospect. If the choice is Fields, then the next decision is what to do with the pick. Keep it and take a defensive player, or accept an offer to trade down? If the Bears make a provocative move like dealing Fields, which quarterback's shoulders do they want to rest their future on?
The Bears are sending out smokescreens as of this writing, so how you handicap what they'll do with their next move will inform how to bet on the first overall draft pick.
Player to be drafted first overall| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -130 |
| CJ Stroud | +200 |
| Will Anderson | +550 |
| Jalen Carter | +650 |
| Will Levis | +700 |
| Anthony Richardson | +5000 |
| Myles Murphy | +6000 |
*Other players available at 100-1 or longer
Bryce Young's size will be scrutinized in the upcoming NFL Combine, and there isn't a hole for him to fill on the team currently selecting first. On top of that, there's actual competition for the top quarterback available in CJ Stroud - and maybe physical Adonis Will Levis. While Young was consistently the best college passer over the last two seasons, I have a hard time buying him as the odds-on favorite (with a 56.5% probability) at this moment.
Logically, with three potential high-end signal-caller prospects and the draft's history of players at that position going one after another at the top, it's easy to imagine a QB not just going first overall but in the second spot as well.
Draft Order| PICK | TEAM |
|---|---|
| 1 | Bears |
| 2 | Texans |
| 3 | Cardinals |
| 4 | Colts |
| 5 | Seahawks |
| 6 | Lions |
| 7 | Raiders |
| 8 | Falcons |
| 9 | Panthers |
| 10 | Eagles |
| 11 | Titans |
We've included the Titans, who are at least in the market for a quarterback with the 11th pick - but they would have to make quite the offer to get up to No. 1.
Betting on anything in the draft shouldn't be based on what you think a team should do but instead on probabilities. Should the Texans deal a future first-round pick to swap spots with the Bears? Probably not. Could they? Absolutely.
It's worth remembering while betting now that someone's stock could increase and odds could shorten between mid-February and mid-April, regardless of who actually goes first. Even Young at -130 could end up the consensus pick and head into the -400 range.
With free agency before the draft and the Bears replete with cap room, they may fill a hole that makes them less likely to take certain players.
Fading the favorite?A team that trades up into No. 1 would jump the Texans to take the player it may want. So, in that case, we have to figure out how it's anyone other than Young.
Levis is the most likely player to have scouts drooling when athleticism is measured at the Combine. At 6-foot-3, 230 lbs, Levis (+700) could look a lot like Jalen Hurts to new Colts head coach Shane Steichen. However, at the fourth pick, Indianapolis could sit tight and still get Levis knowing that if he's gone, Young or Stroud are likely still available as a nice consolation prize.
On the defensive side, Jalen Carter (+650) will most likely be the jaw-dropper during the first week of March and would start the Bears' defensive rebuild in the middle. That would mean no one was willing to meet Chicago's price to trade up, but there are seemingly too many quarterback-needy teams within range for the team not to find a partner.
Young won't go first overall if:
- The Bears don't trade the pick and take a defensive player
- The Bears don't trade the pick, trade Fields, and take a QB other than Young
- A team trades up to No. 1 but for a QB other than Young
How can we make this actionable other than taking a flier on Levis and/or Carter? It's pretty simple. If Stroud gets enough attention at the Combine as a "better than expected" athlete and there's a reason for a team to trade up ahead of Houston, then acting quickly on the Ohio State star would be the play.
Lastly, guiding your bets based on a mock draft would probably result in a negative expected value. Many are designed for attention versus information. Why would the Colts trade up for Anthony Richardson when he'll be available at No. 4? Beware the mock draft.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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