NHL Friday player props: Nylander to get Wild at home

Thursday was a bounce-back night for our player props, with Alex Ovechkin and Connor McDavid coming through to give us a 2-1 record.

We'll look to build on it with three more plays for Friday's slate of games.

William Nylander over 3.5 shots (-105)

Although a date with the Wild doesn't seem the most appealing on the surface, there's a lot of reason to believe Nylander can find success shooting the puck Friday night.

His hit rate is 10% higher on home ice than on the road this season. Nylander also shoots the most when skating on a line with Auston Matthews, who recently returned to the lineup.

The 26-year-old has gone over his shot total in three of four games since Matthews rejoined the lineup, coming up just one shy in the lone exception. With 27 shot attempts over that span, his volume has been very promising.

Nylander has a surprisingly strong track record against the Wild: 25 attempts and 14 shots on target over his last three meetings since the beginning of last season.

The Wild take penalties at an above-average clip and are in a road back-to-back. They should be a little more susceptible to giving up shots, which should benefit Nylander.

Kirill Kaprizov under 3.5 shots (-115)

By now, you all know I'm a big fan of Kaprizov when he plays in Minnesota, where he's one of the most consistent volume shooters in the NHL. The same can't be said when playing on the road.

To say there's a drastic difference would be an understatement - it's truly night and day. Kaprizov recorded four or more shots in 58% of his games at home, compared to just 31% on the road. That's a 27% swing.

Kaprizov found success on the road Thursday night against the Blue Jackets, but the Maple Leafs are a much different animal. At five-on-five, they rank top 10 in shot suppression over the last 10 games and don't take many penalties. Kaprizov won't have many easy opportunities to shoot the puck.

In a back-to-back situation against a Maple Leafs team that defends a lot better than it gets credit for, I don't expect Kaprizov to buck that trend.

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-145)

I generally try and recommend plays closer to even money, but MacKinnon is a player worth making exceptions for.

His shot floor and ceiling are as high as anybody in the league. He recorded five shots or more in five straight games and is averaging 5.4 per this season while hitting the over 59% of the time.

MacKinnon has torched the Jets time and time again in recent years, generating a whopping 7.3 shots on goal per meeting over his last six. Insane production.

With Cale Makar sidelined due to a concussion, even more offensive responsibility falls on MacKinnon's shoulders. He produced multiple points and no fewer than six shots on goal in four straight games without Makar, so the forecast is positive.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.