NHL Thursday best bets: Release the Kraken

Wednesday night was a tough one for our best bets. The Capitals dominated the Ducks from start to finish but were unable to win the game inside regulation. We also fell a puck short of the over in Vegas, with the Golden Knights failing to put one in the empty net to bring us home.

We'll look to rebound with a pair of sides for Thursday night's monster slate.

The Kraken are not playing their best hockey. In fact, they're playing some of their worst. They have won just four of the past 10 games and controlled only 45% of the expected goals share at five-on-five.

Thursday presents a nice opportunity to buy low against a Red Wings team in a really bad spot. Detroit has dropped three games in a row - essentially ending any hope of claiming a playoff spot - and just moved two of its better players (Tyler Bertuzzi and Filip Hronek) for draft picks. That takes a big bite out of a team that wasn't very good to begin with.

As concerning as the Kraken's play has been of late, the Red Wings look even worse; their high-danger chance share sits at 42% over the past 10 games.

Seattle has an abundance of depth that should be able to gain real traction against this shallow Detroit side.

With Philipp Grubauer - rather than Martin Jones - expected to be between the pipes, those edges have a much better chance of holding up. Believe it or not, Grubauer ranks 13th among 39 eligible netminders in five-on-five save percentage since the calendar flipped.

Beyond Seattle's deeper roster and better underlying profile, this price is also way off from what the market previously told us.

The Kraken closed -180 last time they faced the Red Wings, implying a 64.3% win probability. The current price suggests the Kraken will win 53.5% of the time.

Call me crazy, but I don't think home ice is worth more than a 10% swing in probability, and that's before noting that multiple quality pieces have been plucked from this version of the Red Wings.

Back the Kraken to get right against a Detroit team trending downward in a hurry.

Bet: Kraken (-115)

The Lightning are quietly in a rut. They've been blown out in back-to-back games, dropped three of four overall, and were outshot by nearly 30 in the lone game they won.

Although the regular season doesn't hold a ton of meaning for a team like the Bolts, I expect they'll be looking to right the ship and put this poor run of play behind them as soon as possible.

A home date with the Penguins seems like an opportune time for that. The Pens have played better recently but, by and large, they've struggled defensively all season.

The Lightning should be chomping at the bit for a chance to play them. They're 22-5-3 on home ice this season and have scored more goals - at five-on-five and overall - than every team in the league in their own building.

That is anything but a coincidence. The Lightning are the NHL's most efficient team when it comes to generating high-danger chances at home. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict a team with that kind of talent will score a lot when generating such impressive chance volume.

Look for the Lightning's lethal home attack to lead them to a victory inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Lightning in regulation (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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