NHL Thursday player props: Verhaeghe heating up at home

We have a whopping 10 games on the docket for Thursday night's slate. Let's waste no time in getting to three props that stand out from the pack.

Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 shots (-115)

Verhaeghe has quietly turned into one of the league's most consistent shot-generators, especially on home ice. He's averaged 3.7 shots per game in Florida this season and gone over his shot total a whopping 63% of the time.

Verhaeghe is somehow still trending upward, having hit in nine consecutive games at home. His attempt volume over the last 10 has been 1.1 higher than his season average, and his ice time is up about a minute and a half as well.

While Verhaeghe failed to get the job done against the Nashville Predators just last week, I expect things to be different this time around.

First and foremost, the game will be played in Florida. Verhaeghe's success rate is 25% higher at home.

The Predators have also gone through somewhat of a fire sale, dealing Mattias Ekholm, Mikael Granlund, and Tanner Jeannot while also losing Ryan Johansen to injury. This team is much more vulnerable than the one Verhaeghe last saw.

David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-105)

Pastrnak is another guy who does his best work at home. Although the splits aren't anywhere close to as drastic, Pastrnak's numbers (4.8 shots, nine attempts) are better when playing in Boston.

He's gone a little cold of late, failing to go over in five of six games at home and three straight overall, but this is a nice spot for him to get back on track.

The Buffalo Sabres are a mid-tier defensive team that tends to play a lot of high-event games. That should create a good game environment for Pastrnak to shoot in bulk.

Rasmus Dahlin's absence on the backend also will make life easier for Pastrnak. Unsurprisingly, the Sabres haven't defended well of late without Dahlin. They rank seventh from last in five-on-five shot suppression over the last 10 games.

With a good matchup and a monster extension in Pastrnak's back pocket, perhaps he'll have a little more pep in his step to stick it to a rival.

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-135)

Robertson is a player I much prefer to back when he's playing in Dallas. There are exceptions to everything, though, and a date with the Blackhawks in Chicago calls for one.

Only the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher clip over the last 10 games. With the likes of Patrick Kane and Jake McCabe being shipped out of town, the Blackhawks have less weaponry for the offensive zone, and they should be even worse when opposing teams enter their third.

Robertson is the Stars' No. 1 shooting threat on a nightly basis. They're in the thick of a race for the top spot in the division and conference, so they'll no doubt be looking to get the most out of this game.

That should mean plenty of ice for Robertson, even in a back-to-back situation. Look for him to take advantage.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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