NHL Tuesday player props: Nathan MacKinnon's heating up

We posted a disappointing 1-2 record with our props on Monday night. Leon Draisaitl took only two of 37 shots for the Oilers. Meanwhile, Brady Tkachuk hit the net on three of six attempts, and took 17 penalty minutes, in a great matchup against the Blackhawks.

We'll look to get back in the win column with three more plays for a busy Tuesday slate.

Martin Necas over 2.5 shots (-130)

Necas is as consistent as they come on the road. The emerging star winger has averaged 3.2 shots per game away from home this season, which has helped him to an impressive 73% hit rate on his shot total.

Tonight, Necas finds himself in a mouth-watering matchup against a bad Canadiens team missing an abundance of players.

The Canadiens have allowed 66.45 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five player over the last eight games. That's a worse mark than all but the Blue Jackets and Ducks.

Their numbers aren't great on the penalty kill, either, where Necas finds himself skating on the top unit.

As a cherry on top, the Canadiens' league-wide ranking in shots against is lower against right wingers than any other position. The stars are all aligning for an active offensive game from Necas.

Clayton Keller over 2.5 shots (-130)

Keller is heating up. He has registered at least three shots in four straight games at home, where he's enjoyed fairly consistent success all season long.

He has gone over his total 57% of the time in Arizona, compared to just 34% away from home. That's a big swing.

The attempt data suggests that is no coincidence. Keller has averaged five attempts per game in Arizona and only 3.7 on the road.

He should be able to stay hot at home on Tuesday against the Blues. They are among the worst shot-suppression teams in the league right now and they're giving up a lot of volume to left wingers.

With cushy usage at home, and a juicy matchup against a team bleeding shots, Keller should be able to hit the over for the fifth straight time in Arizona.

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-115)

MacKinnon has hit a new level of late. He's not just getting the job done in the shot department; he's routinely soaring past the number with room to spare.

He has gone over his total in seven of the last 10 games. In every single one of those scenarios, he recorded no fewer than six shots on target.

The three failures came against strong defensive teams in the Kraken, Flames, and Jets. I wouldn't put the Sharks in the same group, especially in their current state.

They try and play a tight brand of hockey under David Quinn, but they just don't have the horses to hold up. I don't see that changing in the latter half of a road back-to-back at high altitude.

Look for MacKinnon, who has hit in nearly 60% of home games this season, to put together another big performance.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.