Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 2nd day of free agency

The second day of the NFL's legal tampering window has already featured several offensive moves with fantasy implications.

Let's take a look at all the notable skill-position signings so far - and what they'll mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesLions sign RB David Montgomery

Contract: 3 years, $18 million

We all knew the Lions would add another back to pair with D'Andre Swift, but it's surprising to see them acquire one of the top runners in this year's free-agent class in Montgomery.

This brings an end to the Jamaal Williams era in Detroit, which was highlighted by a league-leading 17-touchdown campaign in 2022. Fortunately, Montgomery offers many similar traits regarding his physicality between the tackles and his potential to be a goal-line hammer.

Projecting the Lions' backfield will be no easy task this season. While Swift has been an explosive threat whenever he's healthy, the 24-year-old has struggled with injuries and often ends up playing at less than 100%. There's a massive fantasy ceiling for a back of his caliber if he could hold up to a heavy workload - we just haven't seen evidence that he's capable of that.

Head coach Dan Campbell has repeatedly hinted at limiting Swift's usage, and Williams' role last season played into that narrative. The Montgomery signing is just the latest indication Swift will be part of a committee once again - likely capping his fantasy value in the low-end RB2 range.

Meanwhile, Montgomery could very well follow Williams' path to a top-12 fantasy finish if he can turn in a double-digit touchdown total or if Swift gets banged up.

Montgomery is a better back than he's given credit for and already has an RB1 fantasy season under his belt from 2020. His efficiency began sliding in the wrong direction when the Bears' offensive line fell apart. However, he routinely took advantage of good matchups and positive game scripts - something he should see more of on an ascending Lions team.

Both Swift and Montgomery will be worthy of selection in this year's fantasy drafts. If forced to pick today, I'd give Montgomery the slight edge for 2023.

Montgomery's 2023 projection (15 games): 206 carries, 865 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 29 receptions, 232 receiving yards, TD

Jets sign WR Allen Lazard

Contract: 4 years, $44 million

In their endless quest to attract Aaron Rodgers, the Jets added one of his favorite receivers on Tuesday.

Earlier in the day, ESPN's Diana Russini reported that Rodgers had given the Jets a list of players he wanted them to acquire, including Lazard, Randall Cobb, Marcedes Lewis, and Odell Beckham Jr.

Lazard and OBJ are the most difficult signings to make given their contract demands, so perhaps the Jets are inching closer to making Rodgers their quarterback.

Lazard joins a receiving corps already full of quality players like Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and veteran Corey Davis - though Davis has been rumored to be a potential cut candidate.

The addition of Lazard could make it tough for Moore to make good on some of the early promise he showed in his career. Wilson has firmly established himself as the top dog in New York and will lead what should be a dangerous duo with Lazard.

Wilson should be considered a fringe WR1 for fantasy, especially with Rodgers potentially on the way. Lazard falls more into the WR4/flex range with Moore being a dart-throw pick in the later rounds.

Lazard's 2023 projection (17 games): 91 targets, 53 receptions, 724 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Eagles sign RB Rashaad Penny

Contract: 1 year, $1.35 million

The Eagles' backfield just got a whole lot more interesting with the signing of the ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy back, Rashaad Penny.

With Miles Sanders heading to free agency, general manager Howie Roseman had a void to fill, and Penny will get the first crack at leading the charge for Philly.

The 27-year-old's career has been marred by injuries, and he was limited to 10 or fewer appearances each of the last four seasons, including just five games in 2022.

While the former first-round pick tends to be viewed as a bust, talent-wise, that couldn't be further from the truth. He averaged over 6 yards per carry the last two seasons and brings game-breaking big-play ability whenever he's on the field.

Philadelphia might be the perfect landing spot for him. The Eagles have an abundance of weapons that defenses have to prepare for, one of the best offensive lines in the league, and multiple ball carriers in Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Jalen Hurts who can handle some of the rushing burden.

If Penny stays healthy this season, he'll be a strong RB2 candidate for fantasy - with the potential to reach RB1 production when he finds the end zone.

Penny's 2023 projection (15 games): 186 carries, 911 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 19 receptions, 152 receiving yards

Giants trade for TE Darren Waller

Rumors that Waller was on the trade block have circulated for the last couple of years, but a deal finally came to fruition Tuesday when the Giants sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas in exchange for the star tight end.

Waller brings some much-needed pass-catching help to a New York offense that made do with one of the league's worst collections of receivers and tight ends last year.

While the Giants remain in the market for upgrades at wideout, Waller gives them one of the most dangerous playmakers at his position - when healthy. The 30-year-old has missed 14 games over the last two seasons, making his availability far from a sure thing.

When he's on the field, Waller is a mismatch nightmare whose resume includes multiple NFL seasons with at least 90 catches and 1,100 yards.

We'll have to wait to see whether the Giants make another splash at receiver, but - at the moment - Waller should rank comfortably among the top 10 fantasy tight ends in 2023. If he can avoid injury, he's one of the few players at his position with top-five fantasy upside.

The only bad news is that Waller's arrival will push sophomore tight end Daniel Bellinger back down the depth chart for the foreseeable future.

Waller's 2023 projection (15 games): 94 targets, 63 receptions, 718 receiving yards, 3 TDs

Saints re-sign WR Michael Thomas

Contract: 1 year, $10 million

After injuries limited Thomas to 10 games over the last three seasons, the Saints were widely expected to part ways with their former star receiver. However, the two sides were able to agree on a restructured deal that can be boosted by incentives.

It's been a while since Thomas dominated the league with four straight seasons over 1,100 yards, culminating in a 149-catch, 1,725-yard, nine-touchdown campaign in 2019 when he finished as the WR1 overall in fantasy.

But in the three games he played in 2022, Thomas averaged the ninth-most fantasy points among receivers and showed he's still a threat when healthy.

Even though the situation has changed dramatically from his days with Drew Brees, the Saints managed to stabilize their quarterback situation recently by signing Derek Carr. Sophomore Chris Olave will challenge Thomas for the No. 1 receiver role, but there might be extra targets to go around depending on what happens with Alvin Kamara's off-field issues.

Either way, Thomas is an intriguing player to gamble on given his likely discounted ADP after so much time away from being a trusted fantasy starter.

Thomas' 2023 projection (17 games): 109 targets, 73 receptions, 814 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Dolphins re-sign RB Raheem Mostert, RB Jeff Wilson

Mostert's contract: 2 years, $7.6 million
Wilson's contract: 2 years, $8.2 million

The Dolphins were heading into the offseason with a lot of uncertainty in their backfield since Mostert and Wilson were expected to hit free agency.

While the front office could still make a move for another running back in free agency or the draft, locking down last year's two top options relieves some of the pressure to find an immediate replacement.

Mostert is coming off his best season as a pro - a rare feat for a 30-year-old running back. But his career usage has been light, recording over 100 touches in just two seasons prior to joining the Dolphins last year.

His 1,093 yards from scrimmage, 31 receptions, and five touchdowns were impressive numbers considering he was splitting time with Wilson for part of the year. Perhaps more impressively, Mostert pushed back against those who doubted his durability and suited up for 16 games.

Wilson got off to a hot start in Miami but eventually settled into a complementary role behind Mostert.

A more accurate statistical projection for this season won't be available until we find out how the Dolphins plan to fill out the depth chart, but their outlook below is taking into account another Mostert-Wilson timeshare.

If Mostert maintains the starting job, he could challenge for low-end RB2 stats some weeks. Given the likelihood of a split, the veteran is best viewed as an RB3/flex for 2023. Wilson is an upside backup to target, who can give you some flex production but will need a Mostert injury to reach his potential.

Mostert's 2023 projection (15 games): 156 carries, 765 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 32 receptions, 208 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Wilson's 2023 projection (15 games): 137 carries, 672 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 21 receptions, 164 receiving yards, TD

Raiders sign WR Jakobi Meyers

Contract: 3 years, $33 million

A day after finding their new starting quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, the Raiders went back to work, giving him another quality weapon in Meyers.

While the front office still has work to do upgrading the offensive line, there's no denying the talent that surrounds Garoppolo now - including a receiving corps of Davante Adams, Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow, as well as last year's rushing leader, Josh Jacobs.

With this kind of environment, Garoppolo can succeed as a game-manager in Josh McDaniels' system. Garoppolo's and Meyers' familiarity with McDaniels from their time together in New England should also help give the offense a head start this offseason.

Adams is Vegas' unquestioned No. 1 option through the air and remains a WR1 for fantasy purposes.

For now, we're valuing Meyers as a WR4 with a chance to sneak into the WR3 range if this offense finds its rhythm under Garoppolo.

The Raiders will definitely be in the mix to add a tight end after the Darren Waller trade, but the move also re-opens the possibility of a bounce-back year for Renfrow. Don't get too excited, though. He's simply a late-round flier in upcoming fantasy drafts.

Meyers' 2023 projection (17 games): 116 targets, 78 receptions, 904 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Minor movesBears sign RB Travis Homer

With Montgomery off to Detroit, the Bears acted quickly and added veteran depth behind Khalil Herbert. Homer's fantasy impact is limited since his presence will mostly be felt as an occasional pass-catching option out of the backfield. We're still a long way from Week 1, but for the time being, this signing makes it seem like Herbert has a real chance to be Chicago's top back in 2023. However, he'll have to survive the rest of free agency and the draft before we can officially crown him as a breakout candidate.

Panthers sign QB Andy Dalton

After trading up for the first overall pick in April's draft to secure their long-term starting quarterback, the Panthers made the savvy move to bring in an experienced veteran to help guide the incoming rookie. Dalton may not have the chops to lead a contender, but he's a very good backup option who's played for four different teams over his 13 NFL campaigns. Let's just hope for Carolina's sake that he doesn't have to take the field this year.

Raiders sign WR Phillip Dorsett

Dorsett's signing normally wouldn't be noteworthy, but the Raiders' receiving corps is very thin behind starters Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow. The 30-year-old speedster will mostly be deployed as a part-time field-stretcher in Las Vegas. You won't need to think about Dorsett in fantasy unless a string of injuries sidelines a couple of the starters.

Broncos sign RB Samaje Perine

Perine proved he's a top-notch backup running back during his time in Cincinnati, so his landing spot was worth monitoring. The fact that he ended up in Denver is particularly interesting given Javonte Williams' serious leg injury. The odds are high that Perine could be the Broncos' lead back in the opening month, and maybe beyond. It's a role he produced well in for the Bengals last year. In the three games where the 27-year-old saw at least 50% of the snaps, Perine delivered stat lines of 82 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns versus the Steelers, 93 yards and a score against the Titans, and 155 scoreless yards versus the Chiefs. Expect his value to rise closer to the season as more fantasy managers realize Williams' recovery timetable.

Texans sign WR Noah Brown

Brown is a strong depth receiver who emerged with some usable fantasy performances when thrust into the Cowboys' starting lineup to cover for injuries over the last couple seasons. Brandin Cooks is likely on the way out in Houston, but Brown will slide in as the fourth or fifth option behind Nico Collins, Robert Woods, John Metchie III (depending on his health), and at least one other receiver the Texans add in free agency or the draft. He's only worth consideration in deep dynasty leagues, but keep him on your watchlist in case injuries strike Houston's wideouts.

Falcons sign QB Taylor Heinicke

Atlanta needed a veteran quarterback to come in and compete with last year's third-round pick Desmond Ridder, who failed to impress during his brief starting stint in the final month of the season. Heinicke fits that description and is a solid backup capable of leading the offense for short stretches. However, he's repeatedly shown he can't be a long-term solution at the position. If the Falcons don't invest in another veteran or draft pick to join the mix, the opportunity will be there for Heinicke to beat out Ridder and step under center in Week 1. Both players are worth stashing in dynasty but are well off the fantasy radar in redraft leagues.

Vikings re-sign QB Nick Mullens

It's business as usual in Minnesota's QB room as it brings back Mullens to serve as Kirk Cousins' backup for another season. The 27-year-old is a competent second-stringer who could keep the Vikings' offense afloat if Cousins misses time. Mullens carries almost no fantasy value outside of the deepest superflex formats.

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