Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 3rd day of free agency

Let's look at the latest wave of notable skill-position signings and trades - and what they mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesVikings re-sign RB Alexander Mattison

Contract: 2 years, $7 million

Fantasy managers have been waiting for Mattison to reach free agency for a while, so it's kind of disappointing to see him return to Minnesota on a relatively small contract.

However, if the trade rumors surrounding Dalvin Cook materialize, Mattison would be in line to gain control of this backfield and finally evolve into a consistent fantasy starter.

You have to go back to the 2021 season to find games where Mattison took the majority of the team's offensive snaps. But in the four contests where he played at least 50% of the snaps that year, Mattison averaged 89 rushing yards, 40.5 receiving yards, and 4.75 receptions per contest while scoring three touchdowns over that span.

As one of the league's most overqualified backup running backs, let's hope Mattison gets his chance to start soon and doesn't spend his entire career behind Cook.

For now, we're forced to project him as the Vikings' No. 2 back, which means he'll be an injury-away guy with a league-winning ceiling if Cook were to get hurt or be traded.

Mattison's 2023 projection (15 games): 108 carries, 427 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 19 receptions, 134 receiving yards, TD

Panthers sign RB Miles Sanders

Contract: 4 years, $25 million

The running back market found its stride Wednesday. Sanders was one of several backs to sign new deals and may have found the best landing spot of the bunch.

The 25-year-old is reuniting with his former running backs coach Duce Staley, who now holds the same position in Carolina.

Sanders immediately becomes the Panthers' top runner. He replaces free agent D'Onta Foreman, who did an admirable job as the starter after Christian McCaffrey was traded midseason.

Even though he scored 11 touchdowns in Philly's high-octane offense behind a top-notch line last year, Sanders only averaged the 16th-most fantasy points among running backs. His limited role in the passing game is a big part of that, and unless something changes in Carolina, it'll likely cap him as an RB2 in fantasy.

However, if the Panthers believe Sanders can handle more work as a pass-catcher, he has the talent to turn in a top-12 fantasy season.

Sanders' 2023 projection (15 games): 229 carries, 1,063 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions, 128 receiving yards

Saints sign RB Jamaal Williams

Contract: 3 years, $12 million

Coming off his league-leading 17 touchdowns last season, Williams inks a deal to be the new Robin to Alvin Kamara's Batman.

That's under the assumption Kamara is on the roster and available to play in 2023. It's still unclear whether he'll receive a suspension for his role in an incident that occurred in Las Vegas in 2022. Kamara pleaded not guilty to charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm, with the trial set to begin July 31.

A backfield duo featuring Kamara and Williams would be reminiscent of the Kamara-Mark Ingram tandem the Saints used to deploy. If that scenario unfolds, Williams would be an RB3 in need of another massive touchdown total to boost his fantasy value.

If Kamara misses time, Williams would move into the RB2 range for however long his teammate is sidelined.

From a fantasy perspective, this is just the latest in a string of developments that are pushing Kamara's stock down. The uncertainty around his situation and the introduction of touchdown-vulture Williams to the offense makes Kamara a very risky pick in this year's drafts, and one that's best avoided.

Williams' 2023 projection (15 games): 169 carries, 693 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 21 receptions, 127 receiving yards, TD

Commanders sign QB Jacoby Brissett

Contract: 1 year, $8 million

This signing is straddling the border between a big move and a minor move. We're giving it the bump up because Brissett deserves a shot to compete for the starting gig in Washington.

At the beginning of the offseason, the team said it expected Sam Howell to be under center in 2023. Head coach Ron Rivera has qualified that statement but also suggested that a veteran could beat Howell out for the job.

Right now, we're projecting Howell to open the year atop the depth chart. But it wouldn't be surprising if last year's fifth-round pick struggles and Brissett steps in.

Fantasy managers will need to monitor the situation closely, given all the talent in Washington's receiving corps. At worst, Brissett provides a safety net for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson - keeping them in the WR2/WR3 mix for fantasy.

Though Brissett performed well as the Browns' relief starter for the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season, he was only the QB23 in fantasy points per game. Even if he takes over in Washington at some point, his fantasy value will be in a similar range.

Brissett's 2023 projection: Opens the season as the No. 2 QB.

Cowboys release RB Ezekiel Elliott

This move might seem shocking to some, but it was a long time coming as Elliott's true impact on the Cowboys' offense dwindled, and Tony Pollard emerged as the more successful back.

Zeke set career lows in almost every statistical category in 2022 outside of touchdowns, and with Dallas finally cutting the cord, the team will save $10.5 million in cap space.

It's possible Elliott could find a home on a contender in a Jamaal Williams-style role as a between-the-tackles grinder and goal-line power back. That'll be his best way to regain fantasy value.

The real story to focus on is what this means for Pollard, who's a surefire fantasy RB1 and could be a top-five back if the Cowboys want to increase his workload significantly. Remember, he still has to recover from a broken leg suffered in the playoffs.

Even if Pollard is 100% for Week 1, there's a strong chance Dallas brings in another player to serve as a complementary back to lighten the load. It's also possible the Cowboys could lean on current backup Malik Davis after he flashed in limited duty during the season.

Patriots sign WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

Contract: 3 years, $33 million

After two straight seasons signing one-year prove-it deals, Smith-Schuster is leaving the comfort of a Patrick Mahomes-led offense in Kansas City to join the uncertainty that comes with Mac Jones and the Patriots' attack.

In New England, he'll be asked to pick up some of the vacated targets left behind by Jakobi Meyers. It's a role he's capable of excelling in - as a volume-dependent producer at this stage of his career.

That might sound harsh for a 26-year-old receiver, but knee injuries have taken their toll and turned Smith-Schuster into a less dynamic and durable option than he was during his early days with the Steelers.

After averaging 7.5 targets per game in the first half of the 2022 regular season, JuJu's targets declined dramatically in the second half of the year. He only topped 40 yards three times over his last 10 appearances for the Chiefs, including the playoffs.

If he can stay healthy and not wear down as the season progresses, Smith-Schuster could flirt with Meyers-like numbers in New England - but as the Patriots' No. 1 wideout, Meyers only finished as a WR3 in fantasy last year.

Smith-Schuster's 2023 projection (16 games): 94 targets, 71 receptions, 832 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Buccaneers sign QB Baker Mayfield

Contract: 1 year, $8.5 million

With most of the notable quarterbacks already signed, the Bucs find a cost-effective, one-year option to replace the retired Tom Brady.

The coaching staff will certainly paint this as an open competition between Mayfield and Kyle Trask, but given his experience, this is Mayfield's job to lose - which he still might at some point during the season.

His presence in Tampa Bay is an unfortunate turn of events for the likes of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who no doubt enjoyed Brady's command of the offense the last few years - even with the unit's struggles last season.

Under Mayfield, this will be a more chaotic passing attack with less consistency from Godwin and Evans. The duo will remain in the low-end WR2 conversation for fantasy; there's just far more risk attached to their outlooks now.

Meanwhile, this is an ideal landing spot for Mayfield. The 27-year-old fizzled out in Cleveland and Carolina before apparently making a positive enough impression during his brief stint with the Rams to earn another starting opportunity.

Be warned, though, the prime-time heroics Mayfield displayed for the Rams overshadowed a very mediocre performance down the stretch. He's unlikely to be the long-term solution for the franchise, but fantasy managers will have to hope he can keep this offense in rhythm to allow players like Godwin, Evans, Rachaad White, and Cade Otton to find success.

Mayfield should be treated as a low-end QB2 who could find himself on the bench again if the Bucs have a losing record in the second half of the season.

Mayfield's 2023 projection (17 games): 3,609 passing yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs, 32 carries, 118 rushing yards, 1 TD, FL

Panthers sign TE Hayden Hurst

Contract: 3 years, $21.75 million

Hurst hasn't been much of a fantasy factor the last couple of seasons, but his arrival in Carolina should pique the interest of managers in all formats.

Though he's far from being one of the elite players at his position, the former first-round pick has the talent to produce when featured in an offense. As a member of the Falcons in 2020, Hurst finished as the TE16 in fantasy points per game on the back of a 56-catch, 571-yard, six-touchdown campaign. Since then, he hasn't come anywhere close to the 88 targets thrown his way that year.

However, the Panthers' offense is in the midst of a full rebuild under new head coach Frank Reich - who has a history of making good use of his tight ends.

The team has already traded up to acquire the first overall pick, which it likely plans to use on a new quarterback. That move alone will inject life into this passing attack.

In this environment, a stat compiler like Hurst should be able to deliver solid TE2 fantasy numbers while also possessing low-end TE1 upside if the Panthers fail to add significant talent at receiver.

Hurst's 2023 projection (17 games): 82 targets, 59 receptions, 543 receiving yards, 3 TDs

Minor movesPatriots sign RB James Robinson

Even though he just signed a two-year, $8-million contract to join New England, it's hard not to feel bad for Robinson given how his career has gone the last couple of seasons following an Achilles tear in late 2021. As we've been reminded recently, players need at least a year and a half - sometimes longer - to get anywhere close to where they were before that injury. Watching Cam Akers finish last season strong for the Rams should be a hopeful sign for Robinson entering the 2023 campaign. Unfortunately, he's now likely the No. 2 behind Rhamondre Stevenson in the Patriots' backfield. Add him to the list of injury-away runners with upside and continue to monitor how he's progressing in his quest to regain his early-career form.

Bills sign QB Kyle Allen

Buffalo is in search of someone to back up Josh Allen after Case Keenum left in free agency. Kyle Allen might be an experienced veteran who can help in meetings, but if he's thrust into action, it'd be a nightmare scenario for a team with championship aspirations. The only other passer on the roster is Matt Barkley, so let's hope the Bills keep looking.

Dolphins re-sign RB Myles Gaskin

In an unexpected move, the Dolphins have now brought back all four of their running backs from 2022: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed. It's not impossible that the team could still draft a back to join the group, but it makes the odds of that happening far more remote. Assuming the depth chart remains the same, Mostert and Wilson would handle the bulk of the snaps, with Gaskin and Ahmed fighting for the No. 3 job.

Ravens re-sign RB Justice Hill

Hill remains stuck behind J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in Baltimore's backfield. Even when injuries opened a path to playing time for him early last season, Hill didn't see enough touches to be anything more than a flex option for fantasy. He'll continue to be a strong depth piece for the Ravens, but there isn't much of a fantasy ceiling for the 25-year-old back.

Bengals re-sign RB Trayveon Williams

With Samaje Perine signing in Denver, the Bengals' No. 2 running back job will be up for grabs this offseason. It's highly likely the team invests in another ball carrier in free agency or the draft, but at the moment, the main contenders are Williams and Chris Evans. Williams appeared to pass Evans on the depth chart last year and earned more playing time than him when both were active in the second half of the season. Dynasty managers can pick Williams up as an end-of-the-bench stash.

Bills sign WR Deonte Harty

Harty is a forgotten man in fantasy circles after he changed his last name from Harris and then missed most of last year with a toe injury. In Buffalo, he'll provide a much-needed speed element to the offense and could be a difference-maker in the return game as well. Unless Buffalo makes another move for a wideout, the 25-year-old will compete with Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir for the No. 3 receiver role. Until that battle is settled, Harty is purely a dart throw in fantasy.

Colts re-sign WR Ashton Dulin

Dulin returns to a Colts offense that's likely to lose Parris Campbell to free agency, opening the door for a new starter in three-receiver sets. The 25-year-old got off to a hot start last season with eight catches and 125 yards over the first two games when the team was shorthanded due to injury. He remains a long shot to break out and become a fantasy option, but he's a name to keep on your watchlist in case Indy doesn't bring in any more pass-catchers.

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