NHL point total markets: What's at stake in the season's final week?
Success is all relative.
With a two-point lead in the Central Division with three games to go as of Monday morning, the Avalanche won't exceed expectations with a division title. After all, they were favored to win it before the season. Meanwhile, the Kraken's 2022-23 campaign can be considered an overall win by just making the playoffs, since expectations were for a sub-.500 season.
Then there's the Maple Leafs, whose bar for success is to either win a playoff series or win the Stanley Cup - or anywhere in between, depending on who you ask.
While many teams have yet to determine whether their season is a success, all 32 were assigned a season point total goal for bettors to buy (by betting the over) or sell (by betting the under).
With either two or three games left to play, let's look back at which teams - in the eyes of bettors - had a successful season and which have work to do to go over their prescribed point total.
Regular-season point total winners| TEAM | RSP TOTAL | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Bruins | 95.5 | 131 |
| Hurricanes | 102.5 | 109 |
| Devils | 91.5 | 108 |
| Golden Knights | 96.5 | 107 |
| Rangers | 99.5 | 106 |
| Oilers | 102.5 | 105 |
| Stars | 94.5 | 102 |
| Wild | 99.5 | 100 |
| Kings | 96.5 | 100 |
| Kraken | 81.5 | 98 |
| Jets | 88.5 | 91 |
| Sabres | 78.5 | 85 |
| Coyotes | 65.5 | 69 |
It's strange to discuss the Coyotes in the same breath as the Bruins, but here we are. Arizona's expectations were so low that it could finish 28th overall and still have cashed bettors' over tickets with more than a week left in the season.
It won't come as a surprise that the Bruins led the way in gross margin, but they've also already racked up 37% more points than expected. The Kraken were second in that department, with already 20% more points than their expectation - which was well below what's required of a playoff team.
If getting one's team to play above expectation is the reflection of a coach, Jim Montgomery should win the Jack Adams Award, with Seattle's Dave Hakstol right behind him in voters' eyes. To handicap the betting markets for that award for future seasons, look at which team will exceed their point total by the highest percentage to determine which bet is worth making.
If the Jets seal a playoff spot in the season's final week, that would mean at least 11 of 16 playoff teams went over their point totals.
Regular-season point total success TBD| TEAM | RSP TOTAL | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | 107.5 | 105 |
| Islanders | 93.5 | 91 |
| Senators | 86.5 | 83 |
| Red Wings | 84.5 | 80 |
| Flyers | 73.5 | 71 |
Bettors for five teams will still be made to sweat during the race to the finish line.
Of course Toronto's regular-season success barometer is still in question days before their annual high-stakes temperature check. No team teeters on a balance beam of joy and sorrow more than the Leafs and their backers. While the final three games are largely meaningless in the locker room, many bettors care more about what happens on a three-game road trip to close the season than the upcoming rematch with the Lightning.
In a rare instance of betting imitating life, the Islanders are more than motivated to accrue as many points as possible with two games to go, as they battle the Penguins and Panthers for the two wild cards in the Eastern Conference.
Regular-season point total losers| TEAM | RSP TOTAL | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | 111.5 | 104 |
| Lightning | 103.5 | 96 |
| Panthers | 105.5 | 91 |
| Penguins | 101.5 | 90 |
| Flames | 102.5 | 90 |
| Predators | 96.5 | 88 |
| Blues | 97.5 | 81 |
| Canucks | 92.5 | 79 |
| Capitals | 94.5 | 77 |
| Canadiens | 72.5 | 68 |
| Sharks | 74.5 | 60 |
| Ducks | 79.5 | 58 |
| Blackhawks | 66.5 | 56 |
| Blue Jackets | 79.5 | 56 |
Speaking of Pittsburgh and Florida, bettors didn't expect them to be in such desperate states before the season. Of course, a playoff spot clinched and a potential deep run won't make their season-long backers feel any better about bets that were lost long ago. The same goes for the Avalanche and Lightning, whose Stanley Cup Final matchup last summer helped set the bar slightly too high this season.
Never a threat to hit their prescribed number, the Ducks and Blackhawks each have two points in their last 10 games and are in a battle for the most draft lottery balls with the Sharks and Blue Jackets. Bettors who didn't believe in a turnaround after those four teams missed the playoffs by a mile last year will be satisfied.
If the Flyers can't register three points in their final two games, it will mean that teams lined at less than 80 points went 6-2 to the under - making the "bet the bad teams to be bad" preseason strategy profitable.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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