NFL draft betting: Wild swings in odds for 1st overall pick
Six weeks ago, Bryce Young was still the favorite to go first overall at a time when the Bears held the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. As expected, the Bears subsequently traded the pick - to the Panthers - and as we sit here on April 12, Young is the favorite to go first overall. You'll note the word "still" has been omitted from the back half of that sentence.
Player to be drafted first overall| PLAYER | ODDS (April 12) | ODDS (March 2) | ODDS (Feb. 16) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -350 | -150 | -130 |
| C.J. Stroud | +210 | +250 | +200 |
| Anthony Richardson | +2000 | +550 | +5000 |
| Will Levis | +6000 | +600 | +700 |
| Will Anderson | +15000 | +800 | +550 |
Odds provided by theScore Bet
The reason we haven't been clamoring to bet on the first overall pick is because of a wild swing between early March and mid-April that saw C.J. Stroud get bet as high as -350 to be the top selection on the assumption that the Panthers wanted the Ohio State product. When it comes to NFL draft betting, sometimes patience - and not panic-betting an odds move - is the best practice.
Maybe you've already bet Young at better prices than are currently available and can take a piece of Stroud at +210, thereby being profitable no matter which quarterback is announced first. Otherwise, you're still sitting on the sideline in the first overall pick market - which is OK, by the way.
With Young's move to be a significant favorite, we should ask two questions:
- Is there anything that indicates he's the definitive pick, and if not, should you bet Stroud?
- If Young is somewhat definitive to go first, what does that mean for the following picks in the draft?
Let's start with an assumption after Young's visit with the Panthers and before Stroud's visit to Carolina: The Panthers are still debating who to take, and a -300ish favorite now - with an implied win probability of 75% - is only moderately more likely than a -300 favorite a month ago and could change again. That's especially true if the Panthers' interest in Young is a smokescreen to lure the Texans into giving up some capital to swap top picks with Carolina.
Just as in every other draft betting market, it's a race for information on whether Young or Stroud is the pick. It seems just as likely that either Young becomes a lock or there's another favorite flip. So rather than chase assumptions, let's evaluate our second question in the form of markets for the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks.
Player to be drafted second overall| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | -200 |
| Bryce Young | +180 |
| Will Anderson | +400 |
| Tyree Wilson | +1000 |
| Will Levis | +1500 |
| Jalen Carter | +1800 |
| Anthony Richardson | +2000 |
With Young -350 to go first overall (77.8% implied probability), you'd think that Stroud to go second would carry the same price in what seems like a two-horse race. If you think Young goes first, there may be some value in just betting Stroud to go second at -200 (66% implied probability) or better - especially if you see that market move even more drastically. However, just because the Panthers have been interested in both doesn't mean the Texans are interested in Stroud, and perhaps that's where an 11% implied probability disparity stems from.
Player to be drafted third overall| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | -110 |
| Will Anderson | +250 |
| C.J. Stroud | +650 |
| Will Levis | +700 |
| Tyree Wilson | +1600 |
| Jalen Carter | +2200 |
The Texans may decide to go with a defensive game-changer like Will Anderson (+400), leaving Stroud (+650) available for a team to potentially trade up with the Cardinals at No. 3.
Like any bet you make, if you were looking to bet on Young to go No. 1 at this point, you're hoping that the implied probability increases and his odds increase. Any increase in probability for Young to go first should make bets on Stroud (-200 to go No. 2 and +650 to go No. 3) and/or Anderson (+400 to go No. 2) more valuable without having to lay 3.5 units on Young-related rumors, especially since oddsmakers may be slower to shift those markets than the high-profile first overall draft market.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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