What the Maple Leafs must do to eliminate the Lightning, end drought

The Maple Leafs' first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning hasn't been a Picasso painting. Yet they lead 3-1 after storming back from a three-goal third-period deficit Monday to win Game 4 in overtime, 5-4. Game 5 is Thursday in Toronto, and here's what the Leafs must do to eliminate the Lightning and advance in the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

Win goalie battle Kevin Sousa / Getty Images

Stunning stat alert: In the previous six playoff series of the Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner era, Toronto entered a game holding a series lead 10 times. How many of those games did they win? Not four. Not two. One.

Monday's roller coaster - a soul-crushing first 40 minutes for Leafs fans followed by a fist-pumping third period and overtime - improved that record to 2-9. And superstars Matthews and Marner were the comeback's catalysts.

Both did what they do best. All-world sniper Matthews scored twice over a three-minute span in the third, and all-world distributor Marner earned the primary assists on Matthews' first goal and Morgan Rielly's tying marker.

Similar to what peers Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon accomplished days earlier, Matthews put forth the kind of MVP-caliber performance expected of an MVP-caliber player. On top of the clutch goals, Matthews racked up nine scoring chances, 10 shot attempts (seven on goal), three blocked shots, and three hits in 25:40, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Mike Carlson / Getty Images

Moving forward, and this is obvious: Matthews - who leads the series in shots on goal and scoring chances - and Marner - the league's top playoff scorer - must continue to outduel Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning goalie has been shaky so far: his .856 save percentage ranks 15th out of 15 goalies to appear in at least three playoff games.

Now, that's easier said than done against the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. Vasilevskiy, on a GOAT-tier trajectory, has risen to the occasion more often and with greater effect than any goalie since Hall of Famer Patrick Roy. Everyone's wondering: Does the Russian have another "Vasi game" in the tank?

Let's also not forget that the Lightning's pair of superstar forwards - Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov - are also playoff beasts, both in the past and in this series (despite middling production). They're not going to roll over, especially not after a disastrous collapse at home. Leafs goalie Ilya Samsonov has more or less held his own so far, but Toronto of all teams knows that win No. 4 in a playoff series is the most difficult to secure. The heat will be turned up.

Double down on set plays Mark LoMoglio / Getty Images

The energy is palpable in the playoffs. Every inch of ice is fiercely contested. Every shift builds or kills momentum. Every mistake is magnified.

In this series, the faceoff circle has become a point of leverage for the Leafs and point of frustration for the Lightning. Toronto owns the slight edge in faceoff wins (130-121), which is nice but not quite a separator. What's elevating the Leafs is their elite execution immediately following faceoff wins.

Five goals have been scored a few seconds after a draw in the series - four by Toronto, a whopping 21% of the club's entire playoff goal tally. Tampa has notably failed to contain Rielly during these quick-action moments. The Leafs blue-liner has scored twice (Game 3's winner, Game 4's game-tying goal) and recorded the primary assist on the others (first two goals of Game 2). His skating and decisiveness with the puck have been exemplary.

Mark Blinch / Getty Images

Toronto need to double down on these set plays. And why not? The opening four games have proven they're a reliable way to expose a team that's icing a depleted and inexperienced defense corps, and playing a goalie who's prone to whiffing on shots fired from the sideboards, high slot, or point.

In the regular season, Vasilevskiy had the 13th-furthest average goal distance (21.1 feet) among 45 goalies who logged 1,500 minutes. In the playoffs, he's had the fourth-furthest distance (24.3 feet) among 15 qualified goalies.

As for Tampa's edge in the Xs and Os, it has for the most part controlled the neutral zone. Defensively, the Lightning have flashed better gap control and puck support. Offensively, they've been unafraid to unleash a stretch pass or high flip to bypass Toronto's neutral-zone defense. The former approach led to goals by Ross Colton (Game 1) and Alex Killorn (Game 4).

End late-period nonsense

It's borderline remarkable Toronto finds itself in the driver's seat given how often it has been outplayed for long stretches - even full periods and games.

The pessimistic way to look at it: All of that mediocrity will catch up to the Leafs in Game 5 and the downward spiral to an early offseason - and another collapse - will begin. The optimistic angle: Toronto and its fans can for once believe in a happy ending, because this series is over if the Leafs' best effort is yet to come.

Mike Carlson / Getty Images

However, for that best effort to materialize, defenseman Justin Holl must be either removed from the lineup or have his minutes slashed. Holl's been a liability all series - and there's no legitimate argument against that statement, despite Holl's much-talked-about role on the penalty kill. The numbers don't lie: Tampa's outscored Toronto 11-2 in Holl's 80 minutes. Let that sink in: 11-2, including a 5-0 run on special teams, and a 6-2 Tampa edge at five-on-five.

Holl's main issues - breaking the puck out and covering opponents in front of the net - have been magnified in key moments. Tampa's scored five goals in the final two minutes of a period and Holl's been on the ice for four of them, usually caught doing something ineffective in the process.

Holl doesn't deserve all of the blame, of course. As a team, Toronto must stop the late nonsense and safely close out periods. Every minute of the game is important, yet end-of-period playoff goals seem to offer one team a significant mental boost.

Timothy Liljegren, another right-handed defenseman, has watched the series from the press box. While tossing Liljegren into Game 5 cold would be risky, it's probably a better alternative to the status quo. Holl's sample is no long tiny.

More of the same from 'The Factor' Kevin Sousa / Getty Images

If there was a mid-series MVP trophy, it likely wouldn't be going to Rielly or Marner or Matthews. No, Ryan O'Reilly has been the Leafs' rock.

When the Leafs were down 3-0 in Game 1, O'Reilly - the unshakable veteran - scored to kickstart a mini comeback. When Toronto was down 3-2 late in Game 3, O'Reilly - the steady hand - scored to send the game to OT. When the Leafs were down 2-0 in Game 4, O'Reilly - the defensive genius - stripped Kucherov of the puck and Toronto buried a goal moments later.

All of O'Reilly's seven points have been integral to Toronto's success. But those contributions are also just the tip of the iceberg for a player nicknamed "The Factor," who relishes the high-pressure, detail-oriented postseason environment.

Mark LoMoglio / Getty Images

O'Reilly, 32, may be lumbering, but he takes immaculate routes, deploys his stick at the perfect time, and is a nightmare to go head-to-head with along the boards and in the corners. In a lot of ways, O'Reilly, a former winner of the Selke and Conn Smythe trophies, is a Patrice Bergeron Lite - so dependable.

An offshoot of O'Reilly's brilliance has been the emergence of Matthew Knies. The fresh-out-of-college winger deserves a ton of credit for jumping on a moving train and solidifying his spot in the lineup. (One of Sam Lafferty or Zach Aston-Reese will likely come out upon Michael Bunting's expected return in Game 5 after serving a three-game suspension.) But there's also no denying the influence of O'Reilly, Knies' center, on the youngster's success.

Toronto acquired O'Reilly before the trade deadline for these very reasons. The veteran has met - and arguably exceeded - all expectations. His next test will be calming the hysteria in Game 5, because Tampa, a proud group that's made three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final, will no doubt do everything it can to stay alive.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

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