NFL draft best bets: Mocking out the top 10 for maximum fun
Teams are keeping their plans close to the vest, so mock drafts seem like more of a mockery than ever before. That's unsurprising before a draft where the thing most easily agreed upon is that the Cardinals would love to trade out of pick No. 3.
Since our angle is betting, and betting is supposed to be fun, let's build out a mockery draft of the top 10 - based on the most fun results for bettors - all with one foot in reality.
*Best available bets in italics
No. 1 - Bryce Young (Panthers)Bets that win:
Young to go first overall (all prices)
Admittedly, this isn't all that fun unless you have a ticket from when Young fell out of favor in the market back in March and was widely available for as long as +250.
No. 2 - Will Levis (Colts, via trade up with Texans)Bets that win:
Levis to go second overall (+170)
Levis: Second QB drafted (-175)
The Colts currently hold the fourth pick, but with the third selection up for auction, Indianapolis may decide to just end all worries and give up some capital to swap with the Texans. If Houston keeps the pick and drafts a defensive lineman, Levis to be the second quarterback picked would still be alive anyway.
No. 3 - Paris Johnson (Cardinals)Bets that win:
Johnson to go third overall (+450)
Johnson: First lineman drafted (-250)
Johnson: Top-five pick (+500)
Cardinals' first pick: Offensive lineman (+250)
How much does Kyler Murray's opinion matter to the new regime in Arizona? Usually, it's the opposite, but this draft actually gets more interesting if there are no takers for a trade-up here. Given how bad the Cardinals' offensive line is, taking the Ohio State tackle might be the best play - even if Arizona would rather do it later.
No. 4 - Tyree Wilson (Texans, via trade down with Colts)Bets that win:
Wilson to go fourth overall (+1400)
Wilson: First defensive player drafted (-125)
Wilson: Under 4.5 (-150)
The murmurs out of Houston that the Texans like Wilson - the Texas Tech pass-rusher - are a hint that they'd be fine with not getting Will Anderson Jr. - long presumed to be the best defender available. An even bigger hint? Wilson's actually the favorite to be the first defensive player picked, and his odds are juiced to go in the top four.
No. 5 - C.J. Stroud (Titans, via trade up with Seahawks)Bets that win:
Stroud to go fifth overall (+750)
Stroud: Third QB drafted (+125)
Titans' first pick: Quarterback (+125)
The Titans allegedly love Stroud, and if the other option is waiting until next year to find their franchise quarterback - by finishing with an even worse record - moving up six spots to get their future leader would be understandable. With a handful of teams that might take a quarterback, Stroud isn't likely to fall to No. 11.
No. 6 - Will Anderson Jr. (Bears, via trade up with Lions)Bets that win:
Anderson to go sixth overall (+800)
Anderson: Over 3.5 (-200)
Bears' first pick: Defensive lineman (+180)
Can we agree that nothing all that crazy has happened in this top five? Yet, Anderson hasn't been picked. If pass-rusher is more important than cornerback, it's time for someone to come get Anderson. The Falcons had 21 sacks last year, but the Bears had even fewer, so Chicago uses its ample draft capital to jump Atlanta (and the Raiders) to take Anderson. If the Bears don't, someone else might, which doesn't change the result of your bet. You could still win a bet that the Bears pick a defensive lineman first, even if they don't trade up from No. 9.
No. 7 - Anthony Richardson (Raiders)Bets that win:
Richardson to go seventh overall (+1100)
Team to draft Richardson: Raiders (+400)
Raiders' first pick: Quarterback (+250)
Mark Davis is still his father's son, and Al Davis would fall hard for raw talent and speed. Jimmy Garoppolo can hold things down for a season or two, but Las Vegas isn't likely to draft this low next year. If the choice is between the prudent pick - a cornerback - or the flashy one, maybe the Raiders seize Richardson before he slides? There's a reason they're the third-most likely team to take him.
No. 8 - Bijan Robinson (Falcons)Bets that win:
Robinson to go eighth overall (+240)
Team to draft Robinson: Falcons (+240)
Robinson: Under 12.5 (-160)
You're not supposed to draft a running back this high, but ask Terry Fontenot if he cares. The Falcons GM is looking for impact players, and given their high usage of various tailbacks, the multi-dimensional Robinson adds another element to their attack. Atlanta could move back a few spots and still get Robinson, so with the odds being equal, I'd rather bet on the team versus the slot.
No. 9 - Devon Witherspoon (Lions, via trade down with Bears)Bets that win:
Witherspoon to go ninth overall (+2500)
Witherspoon: Over 6.5 (+110)
Lions' first pick: Cornerback (-110)
Why allow a division rival to trade up? Taking their assets and still getting the player you want would be a good enough reason. Anderson would be tempting, but the Lions' secondary is by far their biggest need.
At 25-1, it's our biggest long shot, but the further down the draft, the more likely for teams to move around and players to end up in draft slots we didn't necessarily see coming. The Bears have the ammo to move around and leave this slot.
No. 10 - Jalen Carter (Eagles)Bets that win:
Carter to go 10th overall (+550)
Carter: Over 6.5 (-200)
Eagles' first pick: Defensive lineman (+200)
If there's an organization there to scoop up someone with character concerns and turn him into a professional, it's the Eagles. Carter's pure talent is the only thing that would keep the Eagles from trading out of this spot, and with no positional or talent scarcity still on the board, there's likely no "Godfather" offer forthcoming.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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