NHL Thursday best bets: Golden Knights to send Jets packing

Wednesday was another great night on the ice. We successfully backed a healthy road underdog - this time the Kraken in Colorado - for the third night in a row, while both player props also came through.

We'll look to stay hot with three more plays for Thursday's games.

Jets (+160) @ Golden Knights (-190)

The Jets are in deep trouble. After a surprisingly dominant series-opening performance against the Golden Knights, they're now on the brink of elimination after dropping three in a row.

But the Jets haven't only lost games. Potential Norris finalist Josh Morrissey was knocked out of the series early in Game 3, while the injured Mark Scheifele won't be available in Game 5.

To say those absences are crushing would be an understatement. At five-on-five, the Jets have controlled just 44% of the expected goal share over the past three games. The Golden Knights have really taken charge in this series, and I don't see that changing with a couple of Winnipeg's top players out of order.

Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, and the Golden Knights' lead dogs are creating a ton of offense, while the defense is giving the Jets next to nothing. Vegas ranks second in five-on-five expected goals conceded since Game 1.

Winnipeg was never going to be a team that generates a ton of chance volume. The path to victory was opportunistic finishing while getting great goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck.

It's a lot harder to convert on chances without Morrissey (second on the team in points) and Scheifele (first in goals), and Hellebuyck isn't doing enough.

Simply put, the undermanned Jets look vulnerable at both ends of the rink. Expect the Golden Knights to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-120)

Timo Meier over 3.5 shots (-115)

Meier is piling up shots against the Rangers. He's attempted 32 at five-on-five alone, which is more than all but Nathan MacKinnon (34) this postseason. However, MacKinnon has played five games, while Meier currently sits at four.

Meier's regular-season shot and chance generation rates were higher with Nico Hischier than any other player he spent meaningful time with in San Jose or New Jersey. In the last couple of games, Meier has played on the top line with Hischier from start to finish. The expectation is he'll do that once again in Game 5.

Playing on the Devils' top line in a swing game, Meier should get a healthy dose of ice time. Look for him to take his fair share of shots and go over the number for the third time in four contests.

Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots (-135)

Connor has come to play against the Golden Knights. In a series where the Jets have had problems generating offense, Connor has had little trouble doing so. He's averaged six shots on goal - and nearly 10 attempts per game - through four meetings.

Getting the puck to Connor in shooting position is priority No. 1 for the Jets. With Scheifele and Morrissey sidelined, it'll also be priority Nos. 2, 3, 4, and 5.

He's one of the league's more consistent volume shooters. In an elimination game where his team is missing multiple key offensive weapons, there's no doubt he'll play a ton of minutes and fire the puck on goal every chance he gets.

Look for Connor to go down swinging.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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