Conn Smythe Trophy betting: Who to play from the contenders after Round 1
Everyone's a contender in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and anyone can exit early. The Bruins' and Avalanche's unceremonious departures should have served more as reminders than as truly shocking news. It's why trying to corner the market on a handful of Conn Smythe Trophy candidates from "good teams" is often a waste of time.
Sure enough, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Linus Ullmark, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy are among the big names no longer on the Conn Smythe oddsboard.
Conn Smythe odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +550 |
| Auston Matthews | +900 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +1000 |
| Mitch Marner | +1000 |
| Jack Hughes | +1400 |
| Roope Hintz | +1600 |
| Jake Oettinger | +1600 |
| Akira Schmid | +1600 |
| Jack Eichel | +1800 |
| Mark Stone | +1800 |
| Sebastian Aho | +1800 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +2000 |
| Jason Robertson | +2500 |
| Frederik Andersen | +2500 |
| John Tavares | +3000 |
| Ilya Samsonov | +3500 |
| Miro Heiskanen | +3500 |
| Brandon Montour | +4000 |
| Martin Necas | +4000 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | +4000 |
| William Nylander | +4000 |
Players not listed at +5000 odds or longer
Connor McDavid takes the reins as the clear-cut playoff MVP favorite, but we've already got that ticket in hand. If you don't, the same logic we used two weeks ago still applies; McDavid's Conn Smythe odds should be closer to the Oilers' Stanley Cup odds than they are.
We were a little nervous that Leon Draisaitl would steal his thunder, as the German star's hot start suggested he might outpace McDavid in total postseason points. But while Draisaitl might be the Oilers' first-round MVP, he's still just one point ahead of his teammate. A potential Cup run should see McDavid take the lead, especially now that he's away from the likes of Phillip Danault, Anze Kopitar, and Drew Doughty.
Best of the restDon't fixate on what's already happened. While the first round is important, the next three will overshadow it during award voting six weeks from now. There are exceptions, of course, such as individual efforts that seem to validate hypotheses like "Matthew Tkachuk was built in a laboratory for playoff hockey."
The current favored team probably doesn't have much Conn Smythe value: None of the Maple Leafs players on the board are great bets simply because there are so many of them.
They're also not great bets because, as we've seen, favorites are vulnerable. The Panthers could knock Toronto out in the second round, and with Florida carrying both an underdog price and a clear Conn Smythe contender, now might be the time to hop on Tkachuk at 20-1 or better. If the Panthers pull off another upset, it will confirm their contender status - and the offseason addition of Tkachuk will be pegged as the reason.
Price mattersSpeaking of the Panthers, Brandon Montour sure had a lot to do with their first-round win over the Bruins, but 40-1 is too short to ask him to sustain those heroics. If, however, you find him available at 100-1, that's a different story at a less taxing price point.
We backed a constellation of Stars before Dallas beat the Wild in Round 1. But we didn't throw a rope around Roope Hintz (12 points). He could continue to outpace his teammates, but it's equally likely that 109-point scorer Jason Robertson (seven points), defenseman Miro Heiskanen (six assists), and goaltender Jake Oettinger will siphon some value between now and mid-June. Dallas also has an easier path with Colorado eliminated, so while those players' prices are naturally shorter than they were before Round 1, they may not be short enough.
Conspicuous in their absence from the top of the odds board are any Devils players not named Akira Schmid or Jack Hughes. Those two were New Jersey's best in Round 1, but Nico Hischier (+7500), Timo Meier (+5000), Dougie Hamilton (+5000), or even Jesper Bratt (+10000) could emerge as New Jersey's most important player from here on out.
Matt Russell is the Lead Betting Analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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