Devils-Hurricanes series preview: Betting by the numbers

In our Rangers-Devils series preview, we discussed the concepts of beliefs in handicapping and personal priorities regarding elements of the game. That series represented the most significant referendum of the first round, pitting the Devils' vociferous five-on-five offense against the Rangers' reliance on outstanding goaltending and an ability to convert seemingly every one of the few quality chances they could generate.

New Jersey spotted New York two games because its own netminder - Vitek Vanecek - couldn't supply close to league-average goaltending while the Rangers converted four of 10 power-play opportunities. Handing the net to a rookie before Game 3, the Devils won four of the next five contests, including a decisive Game 7 in which they had 70% of the expected goals at even strength.

This second-round series won't provide the same validation to those who bet on an analytical basis. The Hurricanes and the Devils both dominated at five-on-five this season and were, in fact, our two top-rated teams - a concept that's easier to digest following the Bruins' first-round exit.

Series odds

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Devils	+100	-120	-1.5 (+135)
Hurricanes	-120	+100	+1.5 (-165)

Somewhat surprisingly, New Jersey is the favorite against the Hurricanes despite starting the series on the road. Though not as heavily favored, the Devils join the Oilers as favorites without home-ice advantage; those didn't exist in the first round.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first-round matchup (relative to their opponent).

TEAM	SEASON	POST-ASB	ROUND 1
Devils	+23.5%	+16%	+25%
Hurricanes	+30%	+20%	-2%

One number jumps out: the Hurricanes' first-round rating. They topped the Islanders in six games but weren't the better team at even strength, owning 49% of the expected goals against a team that entered the playoffs with only a marginally above-average rating.

Advanced metrics at even strength

xG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

TEAM	XG%	HDC%	HDCV%	OPP. HDCV%
Devils	57.4	58.6	12.2	12.6
Hurricanes	58.5	58.0	10.9	11.5

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

The Hurricanes led the regular season in even-strength expected goal share; the Devils finished second. New Jersey led the regular season in even-strength high-danger chance share; Carolina finished second. The Devils were better at converting their chances, while the Hurricanes were better at preventing opponents from capitalizing on their opportunities.

Goaltending matchup

PLAYER	GSAx/60 MIN
Akira Schmid	0.56
Frederik Andersen	0.08
Antti Raanta	0.21

Akira Schmid showed in 18 regular-season appearances that this might be possible, but no one could have predicted 5.71 goals saved above expected in five playoff games - a rate matching that of Igor Shesterkin.

Despite solid play from Antti Raanta through five games, Frederik Andersen got the start for Carolina in Game 6. He played well, preventing nearly two goals more than an average goaltender, so expect him to get the first look in Game 1.

Special teams

TEAM	PP%	PK%	PP+PK
Devils	21.9	82.6	104.5
Hurricanes	19.8	84.4	104.2

The Devils did well holding the Rangers to 18% efficiency with the man advantage in Round 1. They should be feeling some relief entering a second-round matchup against the Hurricanes and their less lethal power play.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

TEAM	NEUT. WIN PROB	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES
Devils	55.4	-110	-130	-151
Hurricanes	44.6	+135	+159	+187

Carolina's first-round rating drags down its overall rating, and there's plenty of reason to buy into that: The loss of Andrei Svechnikov with a month left in the regular season may have contributed to a decreased high-danger conversion rate, an issue that became more serious after Teuvo Teravainen broke his hand in the first round. Though the Hurricanes remain strong up the middle, they lack scoring depth on the wings - as evidenced by their 9% high-danger conversion rate against the Islanders.

Best bets

New Jersey is all depth. Until the latter half of Game 7 against the Rangers, the team hadn't seen a goal from Jesper Bratt, Tomas Tatar, or Timo Meier - three players who combined for over 90 tallies this season - and still led its opponent.

The Devils won't have to cower before Carolina's power play, and they shouldn't see too many opposition jerseys at the Prudential Center after dispatching their local rivals.

Perhaps most importantly, Schmid could regress and still be even money to be the best goaltender in the series after a superhuman effort to keep pace with Shesterkin. Between all those factors and a surprising amount of value on the favorite, the Devils are the play in both Game 1 and the series.

Game 1: Devils moneyline (+100)
Series: Devils to win (-120)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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