Rethinking Bitcoin’s 100k Projections: Regulatory Uncertainties Could Hinder its Future Growth
After a brief down period, Bitcoin is once again being talked about in very positive terms. Visit any crypto site and you will see plenty of articles declaring that the crypto winter is over and Bitcoin is back. While it has, of course, experienced a great 2023 so far and has even seen positive growth through such tumultuous periods we think those boldly predicting it will hit $100k in the next couple of years are speaking prematurely.
It was the Multinational bank Standard Charter that first made this claim also boldly claiming the crypto winter" was over. The statement also claimed;
Bitcoin could gain from factors including recent turmoil in the banking sector, a stabilization of risk assets as the U.S. Federal Reserve ends its rate-hiking cycle and improved profitability of crypto mining"
This is a very ambitious claim that many analysts have run with and of course, once analysts say something that leads to influencers all over the internet reciting it as if it's gospel. While Bitcoins performance remains relatively strong and hitting $100k is very possible we believe many are ignoring the huge elephant in the room, regulation.
Just a quick look at Bitcoin's performance over the last month and you would be forgiven for thinking this doesn't really look like the performance of a coin that is going to break $100k in the not-too-distant future. However, we would be guilty of the same short-sightedness we are criticizing analysts for if we didn't look deeper than this.
Taking info from BitInfoCharts we can see that Bitcoin had its highest number of daily transactions since it was launched. As you can see this was by some distance as it easily beat the previous high during the 2017 bull run and nearly hit 700,000.
Of course, Bitcoin's new ordinal inscriptions, which are similar to NFTs, being minted on Bitcoin have a lot to do with this. It is still unsure how Bitcoins foray into the NFT game with the Ordinals project will go, but initial trends indicate it could be quite positive for crypto's biggest currency.
This however is more of a side show for now. It is the trouble traditional banks are having in the states that is likely pushing analysts into such ambitious claims about Bitcoin. The spike in recent activity has also been attributed to the trouble traditional banking is having in the states. The headliner of this was Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) but now news has broke that JPMorgan Chase has acquired First Republic.
First Republic Bank's failure means it is the second-largest bank collapse in the history of the United States so it feels like this should be ringing more alarm bells. Of course, this collapse is fueling renewed interest in Bitcoin once again as normally a bank collapse and a Bitcoin price surge go hand in hand, this is what all these analysts are relying on. This time it might be different.
Cryptos banking problem and its collision course with regulatorsWhile on the surface level, the traditional banking issues should mean good news for crypto as more people turn to a decentralized system, there is more to it than that. These banks have all been tied in with cryptocurrencies mostly through being willing to lend to new start-ups. Their collapse has caused a stir among fellow institutions and regulators have warned against taking deposits related to crypto projects.
While for now, this won't hurt Bitcoin it could in the long run and we believe these $100k predictions are just looking at the surface level of these bank collapses rather than what it might mean in the future if crypto projects have to do abroad for deposits and lending.
It is regulation however that is the real immediate threat to Bitcoin and it looks like it is in a head-on collision with regulators in the United States. Battle lines are already being drawn as the SEC is threatening to tighten the restrictions while CoinBase is threatening to move its operations from the States if things get too strict.
Every day, it seems like there's a new lawsuit targeting the industry. The SEC is not going to stand idly by, especially when investors are at risk. Investors may not like the rules but, just like seatbelt laws, sometimes investors need protection from themselves." -John Reed Stark, former chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Office of Internet Enforcement
It is clear the SEC and other regulatory bodies have the crypto industry in their crosshairs. So far it has been a lot of posturing but a reckoning of sorts is incoming. In Europe, there is a similar sentiment with senior European Central Bank official Elizabeth McCaul warning in a blog post that new European regulations set to come into effect in 2024 aren't strong enough and more legislation must be added in order to supervise trading platforms like Binance in particular. Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange so these sorts of potential restrictions would also drastically affect Bitcoin.
Investors are turning to AiDoge and other presalesSo to sum it up, we are not saying Bitcoin will not hit $100k, in fact, we would also be positive that it will someday. However, saying it will hit $100k in the short term is just disingenuous as nobody knows what is going to happen in terms of regulations in the near future.
Smart investors have already recognized this and many of them are turning to presales like Aidoge (Ai),
Launchpad xyz (LPX), Ecoterra (ECOTERRA), Ypredict (YPRED) and Deelance (DLANCE) instead.
The smart thinking behind this is to balance risk and reward. At a time of turmoil and volatility, there is still a great chance for ROI, especially in crypto. So, the best tactic is to stock up on presale coins that have the potential to pump when their CEX listings begin.
The five of these currencies have notable USPs and utility that definitely give them the potential to be top performers in 2023. The added bonus is that they are available at rock-bottom prices so you can stock up on them for little or nothing and still see massive returns when they are launched.
Let's finish up with this, Bitcoin is and always will be a strong investment opportunity but realistically with so much uncertainty in its future and the fact it is already such a well-established coin it is just not a viable option for newcomers.
There are presales, however, like the five we mentioned above, that represent genuinely great potential and should be unaffected by more macro market conditions that affect bigger coins like Bitcoin. They are can't miss opportunities but potential investors will need to hurry as they are already being discovered by analysts and this is causing their presale prices to start to go up.
Sources- https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.html#alltime
- https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered-says-2023-04-24/
- https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/first-republic.html
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/04/28/crypto-price-warning-china-biden-and-the-fed-could-be-about-to-destroy-all-value-of-bitcoin/?sh=4a3f440a4631
- https://www.ft.com/content/0bb9180c-309d-445c-a054-62f15c9bd7d4
- https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/blog/2023/html/ssm.blog230405~03fd3d664f.en.html
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