Conn Smythe Trophy betting: Value on the blue line halfway there
Leon Draisaitl scored just shy of a million goals in Round 1, and our theory that Connor McDavid was the only Oiler worth betting for the Conn Smythe Trophy looked like it might have some flaws. Then another round went by and McDavid reeled in his teammate. The problem for McDavid's playoff MVP candidacy? The whole "not getting out of the second round" thing.
While the Oilers duo is no longer under consideration, it exemplifies the importance of allowing for a bigger sample size. Things can change in one series. While McDavid and Draisaitl are among the 75% of playoff participants that have been eliminated, eventual Conn Smythe resumes are only halfway built - and with memories being as short as they are, the most important half is yet to come.
Conn Smythe Trophy odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | +600 |
| Sebastian Aho | +600 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +800 |
| Frederik Andersen | +900 |
| Roope Hintz | +900 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | +900 |
| Mark Stone | +1000 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | +1600 |
| Jake Oettinger | +1600 |
| Joe Pavelski | +2000 |
| Martin Necas | +2000 |
| Brent Burns | +2500 |
| Jordan Martinook | +2500 |
| Adin Hill | +4000 |
| Aleksander Barkov | +4000 |
| Brandon Montour | +4000 |
| Jason Robertson | +4000 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | +4000 |
| Jordan Staal | +4000 |
| Miro Heiskanen | +4000 |
| Seth Jarvis | +4000 |
| Chandler Stephenson | +5000 |
| William Karlsson | +5000 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | +10000 |
| Jaccob Slavin | +10000 |
| Nick Cousins | +10000 |
| Shea Theodore | +10000 |
Jack Eichel and Sebastian Aho replace McDavid as Conn Smythe co-favorites, representing the leading scorers on each of the slight favorites in their respective conference finals. However, Eichel's 14 points don't put him far enough ahead of double-digit-scoring teammates Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault, and Chandler Stephenson, while Aho has just 10 points through two rounds.
We had to wave goodbye to McDavid, but we're still holding out hope for one of Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, or Miro Heiskanen from before the playoffs. Oettinger will have to break a recent habit of getting pulled in order to be the Stars' MVP, but the best goaltender left in the tournament still available at 16-1 isn't bad if you haven't bought a ticket on him yet. Robertson, meanwhile, is seven points back of Roope Hintz for the Stars' leading scorer, but he could make up that gap with a few timely goals.
Most interestingly, the Stars' actual MVP is still 40-1. It's been easy to lose focus on Dallas in the early rounds with late start times and other games on, but anyone paying attention knows that Heiskanen has been the best player on the ice for almost every one of his postseason-high 28 minutes per game. He may need to score to garner more attention from voters, but hopefully those responsible for crowning the playoff's most valuable player are capable of recognizing actual value.
We've seen improved equity on Matthew Tkachuk since the Panthers upset the Maple Leafs. However, with the Golden Knights and Hurricanes just as likely to advance, it's time to add a player from each squad to our portfolio in case they do.
None of the forwards for Carolina and Vegas have stood out, and if that continues to be the case, a defender could improve his chances in the next four weeks, especially playing in front of sketchy goaltending. Brent Burns (+2500) and Alex Pietrangelo (+10000) should find themselves among the top two or three candidates on their own team should they get to the Stanley Cup Final.
Position of Conn Smythe Winner odds| FORWARD | GOALTENDER | DEFENSEMAN |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | +275 | +1000 |
*Odds from theScore Bet
Unlike those Oilers stars, or other headliners from the past, the four remaining teams' scorers aren't separating themselves from their teammates. Meanwhile, even in series victories, goaltenders are getting pulled at an alarming rate. Whether it's individually or as a group, defensemen are being undervalued relative to what they're providing their teams, with a prime contender on each of the remaining clubs. At 10-1, you can throw a blanket on Heiskanen, Burns, Pietrangelo, Brandon Montour, or any dark-horse contender to follow in the footsteps of Cale Makar and Victor Hedman - Conn Smythe-winning defensemen in two of the last three playoffs.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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