Summer job postings are down — but here’s where you’re most likely to find work

The summer labour market remains strong as employers gear up for seasonal work, despite a 21 per cent drop in the number of Canadian job postings compared with this time last year, according to a new report.

Though the number of Canadian job postings was down as of May 12, it remained 30 per cent above 2019 levels. Canadian summer job postings - which include seasonal, full-time or part-time work and are posted as summer" jobs - have also seen a 17 per cent decline from a year earlier, albeit from exceptionally high levels, and were still 55 per cent above their level at the same point in 2019, according to a report from employment website Indeed.

The summer market is still considered hot" though not as scorching as last year," said Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed.

Employer demand has cooled off, yet our unemployment rate is still at multi-decade lows," he added.

According to Statistics Canada, in April employment rose by more than 40,000, all in part-time work. The unemployment rate was five per cent, unchanged since December 2022.

The market is incredibly healthy," said Douglas Porter, chief economist and managing director of BMO Financial Group. It's not as piping hot as it was six months ago, but it's still quite a strong market."

Workers are needed in hospitality services as hotels and restaurants struggle to match pre-pandemic staffing levels, he said.

Traditionally, that sector does better in the summer with the tourism season, so if you are in need of work it's a good go-to sector," Porter added.

In addition, arts and entertainment have high vacancy rates, as well as the health care.

Last year, economists forecast that interest-rate sensitive markets such as manufacturing, real estate and construction would fare poorly in 2023 due to the Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes.

But the sectors have done surprisingly well" as discretionary spending booms, said Sheila Block, senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Only once people spend less on home renovations or investors pull back on new builds will there be pause for concern.

We're in an unusual time as we haven't seen the impact of rapid interest rate changes impacting us significantly yet," she said, adding the Bank of Canada's rate hikes take time to bake in" to the economy.

There may still be a longer-term correction for real estate, tech and finance, Block said, which have all seen a slowdown in hiring.

Recent tech layoffs have been well documented, and there is an overall decline in job vacancies in professional, scientific and technical services despite high vacancies last year, Porter said.

There seems to be some softening in that sector in particular, but the job loss in the tech sector isn't as weak as the headlines would suggest," he said.

Still, the job loss in tech could impact recent graduates looking for internships or entry-level jobs, the Indeed report suggests.

Internship opportunities have been impacted by falling hiring appetite in white-collar fields such as marketing, where job postings are down 42 per cent compared with last year. In tech, software development job postings dropped 61 per cent from 2022, when there was exceptional levels of demand," Bernard said.

There's also a noticeable fallback in finance, which saw a 41 per cent decline in job postings from a year earlier, but still remains 27 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels, he said.

Typically, those aged 15 to 24 see an unemployment rate of 10 per cent, which seems high but is historically below average, said Porter.

It's still double what unemployment is for all age groups, but that's because it's always more of a challenge to crack into the job market," he said. The encouraging point is, overall, it's a healthy market and one of the better times to enter the job market."

While youth employment was strong through April, it's vulnerable to cooler employer sentiment going forward. Opportunities have remained plentiful for those searching for traditional seasonal roles like camp counsellor, but conditions could be more challenging for recent grads looking for entry-level positions in higher-paying sectors, the report said.

As employers gear up for a potential recession, there's hesitancy around hiring, said Block. If a recession comes this year, recent graduates could face some obstacles entering the labour force, impacting their employment opportunities and earnings potential.

We're not seeing that yet. We really need to see where the bank's monetary policy lands," she said. It's still a very strong summer labour market compared to the last 20 years."

Clarrie Feinstein is a Toronto-based business reporter for the Star. Reach Clarrie via email: clarriefeinstein@torstar.ca