NHL weekend best bets: Stars to shine in Vegas
We started the third round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on a high note Thursday night, winning two of three best bets. Both player props cashed, while the Hurricanes had no shortage of opportunities to give us a clean sweep with a win.
At any rate, we'll happily take the profit and look to build on it with three plays for the weekend ahead.
Stars (+100) @ Golden Knights (-120)May 19, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights are a good team. But few, if any, have been as impressive as the Stars through these playoffs. Dallas has the highest expected goal share of any postseason team at five-on-five, controlling more than 55% thus far.
What's more, though, is that the Stars have everything a contender needs to go with that. They've scored 13 power-play goals through 13 games, more than all but the Oilers. And although Sergei Bobrovsky has been exceptional, it's fair to say the Stars have the best goaltender remaining in the playoffs in Jake Oettinger.
Dallas is excellent at even strength, its power play is lethal, and it's as likely as any team to get a game-stealing performance from its netminder. There are numerous paths to victory for the Stars on any given night.
Dallas also has the depth to hang with Vegas, and its star power - no pun intended - has the ability to overwhelm anybody.
The Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Joe Pavelski trio has helped the Stars control 75% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. There isn't a line in the playoffs that can touch those numbers.
As good as Mark Stone is, he's not playing at 100%, and it shows: The line of Brett Howden, Chandler Stephenson, and Stone has an expected goal share below 50%. That trio will probably be hard-matched against Dallas' top unit, and it seems unlikely to survive the battle.
With the best line in the playoffs, a lethal power play, and a goaltending edge, the Stars are poised to go into Vegas and start the series on a high.
Bet: Stars (+100)
Panthers (+125) @ Hurricanes (-145)May 20, 8 p.m. ET
Death, taxes, and Panthers unders. Florida has suffocated its opponents of late, playing five consecutive games featuring five goals or fewer - all of which have been decided by a single tally.
The Hurricanes are more than comfortable playing that style of hockey. They're one of the best shot-suppression teams in the league and are known for generating chances in bulk but failing to convert them.
With Bobrovsky looking like the Vezina Trophy winner of years past, it doesn't seem like that's going to change.
Both of these teams can forecheck ferociously. The defenses are solid - especially in Carolina's case - as is the goaltending. Bobrovsky leads all netminders in goals saved above expected during these playoffs, while Frederik Andersen ranks third - and second among those still playing.
As we saw in the quadruple-overtime series opener, there isn't much separating these two squads. Expect another close, tightly contested affair.
Bet: Under 5.5 goals (-125)
Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (TBD)This line was priced at -110 in Game 1 and should be similar Saturday night. Assuming that's the case, back Barkov once again.
The Panthers' captain only registered three shots in a game featuring seven periods. But while that may be concerning to some, it's worth noting Barkov didn't need overtime to get the job done. He recorded all of his shots in regulation.
Barkov also has a long history of success against the Hurricanes, recording three shots or more in nine of his last 10 games versus Carolina dating back to 2021.
With a chance to go home with a 2-0 series lead, the Panthers will leave no stone unturned in an effort to steal another win. That will mean another healthy dose of ice time for Barkov, who's routinely playing 22-plus minutes a night this postseason.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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