Odds for Matthews' next contract: How long will he stay in Toronto?

Auston Matthews holds a lot of cards in Toronto right now. How the Maple Leafs approach this offseason - and build the team for years to come - depends greatly on what Matthews decides is his best path forward.

Does he want to remain with the Maple Leafs? How long will he sign for? Is he willing to commit now or does he want to take his time, leaving the team a little exposed and uncomfortable?

Suffice it to say, new general manager Brad Treliving has his hands full with the face of the franchise's contract status up in the air.

Matthews loves playing in Toronto, and he's made that clear. He even told the media during his year-end media availability that his "intention is to be here."

So, with plenty of signs that he will eventually re-sign with the Maple Leafs, how long will his next contract be?

A betting line was released with an over/under of 4.5 years, with Matthews re-signing for four years or fewer opening as the slight favorite.

(Odds via theScore Bet)

This line indicates Matthews is going to choose a different path than most of the other NHL stars who have recently inked new deals.

Over the past couple of years, many of the league's premium point producers - Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Jonathan Huberdeau, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Timo Meier, Dylan Larkin, Roope Hintz, Jesper Bratt, and Jason Robertson, to name but a few - have signed on the dotted line.

With the exception of Robertson, who got into a drawn-out dispute as a restricted free agent with the Dallas Stars, all of them signed for as long as they possibly could.

Zooming out even further, Connor McDavid - the face of the NHL - signed for eight years in Edmonton when he was up for a new contract in 2017. He's another example of the sport's brightest stars committing to their home for as long as they can.

That's not the case with Matthews, who marches to the beat of his own drum. In 2019, he elected not to sign a max-term deal, instead extending with the Maple Leafs for five years.

He didn't have to sacrifice dollars to get the term he wanted, signing a contract with the then-highest average annual value ($11.64 million) outside of McDavid.

That move came with Matthews aware that he could make even more down the road. Now, here he is again, eyeing a contract that could earn him more than $13 million per season.

By sacrificing some term - and waiting for the salary cap to rise - Matthews will likely make at least $2 million more per season than he would if he signed for eight years during the previous negotiation.

There's no reason to expect a change in tune for Matthews. If he forwent max term in a somewhat flat-cap world, he should do the same when the league is set to reach new heights.

The expectation is the salary cap will rise nearly $10 million over the next few years, with Forbes projecting an approximate cap of $92 million in 2025-26.

That's a big jump from the $82.5-million limit last season and the $83.5-million limit for 2023-24.

What Matthews could sign for today - the most money in the league on a per-year basis - could again be millions of dollars less than he can get in a handful of years.

Will Matthews opt for another five-year deal and re-evaluate the league's salary-cap structure - and where the Maple Leafs are at - when the time comes?

Will he go even shorter, opting for a three-year contract so he'll still be on the right side of 30 when he signs his next mega-extension?

What Matthews decides could also impact Mitch Marner. With two years remaining on Marner's deal, we could see a similar situation this time next year.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.