The failed Wagner coup shows Vladimir Putin’s regime remains stubbornly strong | Anatol Lieven

The Russian leader's show of mercy towards Yevgeny Prigozhin was not a sign of weakness but a shrewd move

Much of the western analysis of the events in Russia last weekend has concluded that Vladimir Putin displayed his weakness by allowing Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagner group commanders to depart peacefully for Belarus, and the rank-and-file to join the Russian army or retire to their homes. Of course, if Putin had in fact crushed the revolt by force and executed its leaders, commentators would have used this as more evidence of his brutality and ruthlessness, and perhaps also of the innate savagery and violence of the Russian national tradition.

These conclusions are coloured by an understandable dislike of the Russian leader, and they do not constitute sober and objective analysis. In fact, though Putin was obviously responsible for creating the background to this mess, we should consider the possibility that at the weekend he handled things well. In his address to the nation on Saturday morning, he displayed determination and resolve. Putin made clear that he had no intention of surrendering to Prigozhin's demands, and that if he and the other Wagner leaders continued their revolt, they would be charged with treason (and, by implication, probably executed).

Anatol Lieven is director of the Eurasia programme at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and author of books including Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry