Free-agency analysis: Breaking down Saturday's signings
The NHL's free-agent market opened July 1. Below, theScore's lead hockey writer John Matisz breaks down all the day's biggest moves that dropped before 5 p.m. ET.
Signings: Islanders re-sign G Ilya Sorokin (8 years), D Scott Mayfield (7 years), F Pierre Engvall (7 years)
Analysis: Mega extensions have become the norm on Long Island during Lou Lamoriello's tenure as GM. If you're part of the core, you're sticking around through your mid-30s. In the case of Sorokin, that's fantastic news for Isles fans. Most goalies in the modern NHL aren't worth $8.25 million annually, but Sorokin is an exception to the rule (note: his extension starts in 2024-25). In the case of Mayfield, 30, and Engvall, 27, the mega-extension trend is ... the opposite of fantastic. Mayfield at $2M over seven years, sure. Engvall at $1M over seven, OK, sure, whatever. But both of them earning significant more per year, with Mayfield at $3.5M and Envgall at $3M? No thanks. Yep, Lamoriello just created a future cap crunch.
Signing: Avalanche sign F Miles Wood to 6-year deal
Analysis: In isolation, six years for Wood is fine. In isolation, $2.5 million a year for Wood is fine. Put the term and AAV together, though, and it's a puzzling contract. There's a fit between the fourth-line winger and Colorado as far as pace and forechecking. For a depth player, Wood's reliable. But I don't quite get it. Perhaps the analytically driven Avs see untapped potential and want to get ahead of Wood's big breakout in coach Jared Bednar's system. Seems unlikely. But we'll see, I suppose.
Signings: Penguins re-sign G Tristan Jarry to 5-year extension, add D Ryan Graves (6 years), F Noel Acciari (3 years)
Analysis: Kyle Dubas wasn't interested in wading into free agency with short-term, low-AAV deals. No, the Penguins' new president of hockey operations went all-out with starting goalie Jarry ($5.375 million AAV), top-four blue-liner Graves ($4.5M), and depth winger Acciari ($2M). I'm fine with the Graves and Acciari contracts. They're fair. But the Jarry extension feels risky. It's not like the 28-year-old can't be an average NHL starter. He can be. The issue is the commitment, both in dollars and years, for, well, an average NHL starter. If things go south with Jarry, this deal will be difficult to offload. Making matters worse, Pittsburgh's No. 2 and 3 goalies - Casey DeSmith and Alex Nedeljkovic (the latter signed a one-year, $1.5-million deal Saturday) - don't represent the greatest Plan B for 2023-24, one of the final years of the Crosby-Malkin-Letang era.
Signing: Ducks sign F Alex Killorn to 4-year deal
Analysis: Another piece of the Lightning dynasty leaves, and boy did Killorn make the most of his exit, getting $6.25 million annually and plenty of term - another win for the two-time Cup champion. Meanwhile, Ducks GM Pat Verbeek seems to be taking a page from his old boss Steve Yzerman's playbook by handing out big dough to veterans (Killorn, Gudas) before his rebuilding team is ready to make the playoffs (Yzerman's Wings did something similar last offseason). Make no mistake, Anaheim's on the rise, but I wonder about the timeline here. This contract covers Killorn's 34-to-37-year-old seasons. Yes, he's coming off career highs in goals (27) and points (64), but he was playing with Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli. Will this contract age poorly and end up jamming the Ducks' cap sheet?
Signing: Capitals sign F Max Pacioretty to 1-year deal
Analysis: Washington is substituting one winger coming off an injury-riddled season (Connor Brown) with another here. Pacioretty dressed in only five games last season due to multiple Achilles tears, so, like Brown, his stock was relatively low heading into Saturday. The reloading Capitals are a soft landing spot, though, and his $2-million AAV is accompanied by $2 million in potential bonuses. Translation: Patches will get paid, if he stays healthy. He'll be 35 in November but has been a virtual lock for 30 goals throughout his winding career, only missing the mark in seasons in which he plays fewer than 70 games.
Signing: Hurricanes sign F Michael Bunting to 3-year deal
Analysis: Carolina adores a certain player type, and that player type closely resembles Bunting, who'll have no trouble fitting into Rod Brind'Amour's north-south style. The Hurricanes have been busy on Day 1 of free agency, raising their ceiling a fair amount with the additions of a top-four defenseman (Orlov) and top-six winger (Bunting). Bunting, 28 in September, recorded 23 goals in back-to-back seasons to set himself up for his payday. This deal isn't a ripoff at $4.5M annually, but his playoff suspension for a headshot may have lost him a year or two of term and $1-$2 million annually.
Signings: Sabres add D Connor Clifton (3 years), D Erik Johnson (1 year)
Analysis: Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams supplemented his defense corps with a pair of veterans on July 1. The hit-happy Clifton, whose contract carries a $3.3 million AAV, should find a spot alongside Owen Power in the top four, which also features Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson. Johnson makes sense as a bottom-pair guy, though his cap hit ($3.25M) is an overpay even after accounting for the 35-year-old's dressing-room presence. Both newcomers are righties. The question moving forward: What happens to the other defensemen who are under contract or team control? That list includes Henri Jokiharju, Ilya Lyubushkin, Jacob Bryson, and Riley Stillman.
Signing: Stars sign F Matt Duchene to 1-year deal
Analysis: Dallas needed to add a finisher or two to its forward group and the speedy Duchene, who bagged 43 goals two years ago, satisfies that need. Assuming he slots in at his natural position, Duchene joins Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Radek Faksa on the club's center depth chart - not too shabby. And coming off a buyout with surely some extra motivation, there should be no complaints about Duchene's $3 million AAV. Also of note: The single-year term gives both parties an out if things go sideways. Overall, an A+ signing by the Stars.
Signing: Senators sign G Joonas Korpisalo to 5-year deal
Analysis: Look, the term isn't pretty. Anything beyond three years for a non-star goalie is sketchy. But Ottawa sorely needed help between the pipes and given the weak class of UFA goalies, the club was bound to either overpay in AAV or overcommit with term. The positives: One, the $4 million AAV is fine. And two, last year Korpisalo outplayed his environment in both Columbus and Los Angeles, finishing with a total of 16 goals saved above expected over 39 games. The 29-year-old Finn and incumbent Anton Forsberg should form a decent tandem. Generally speaking, the Sens can't keep spinning their wheels in the Atlantic. They must push forward and be more aggressive in the pursuit of a playoff spot, and this move is a prime example of that line of thinking.
Signing: Hurricanes sign D Dmitry Orlov to 2-year deal
Analysis: Carolina lands the top blue-liner available on a contract that works well for both sides. The Hurricanes, who loathe long-term commitments, dip into their oodles of cap space to add an all-situations defenseman at a cap hit of $7.75 million. Orlov, who had all the leverage in the world coming into Saturday, joins a Cup-contending squad, and he'll be walking into free agency again in 2025, when there's more money in the system thanks to a rising cap. Orlov possesses a terrific skill set: excellent skating, very good puck skills, functional physicality. Early on Saturday, this is the biggest win-win of the day.
Signing: Ducks sign D Radko Gudas to 3-year deal
Analysis: On one hand, it's hard to argue with the rationale: Anaheim's blue line lacks a bruising type like Gudas. On the other hand, $4 million a season is a lot of money for a 33-year-old who should be playing bottom-pair minutes. The Ducks have plenty of cap space, so it's not the end of the world. But it's obvious they loved Gudas' postseason of open-ice hitting and net-front clearing and convinced themselves they wouldn't be outbid for his services. Gudas, who previously made $2.5 million annually, receives a sizeable raise.
Signing: Oilers sign F Connor Brown to 1-year deal
Analysis: Brown's cap hit will be only $775,000, but he can earn upwards of $3.225 million in potential bonuses. The 29-year-old found himself in a weird spot after an ACL injury limited him to only four games last season. This is fantastic value for Edmonton, whose roster was largely set coming into Saturday. Brown has an excellent reputation: he's a hard-working, responsible, middle-six winger loved by teammates. The Oilers are his fourth NHL team. A key factor: Brown and Connor McDavid played junior together.
Signings: Hurricanes re-sign G Frederik Andersen (2 years) and G Antti Raanta (1 year)
Analysis: By bringing back Andersen ($3.4 million annually) and Raanta ($1.5 million), the Hurricanes are once again rolling the dice in net. Sure, the three-goalie system - youngster Pyotr Kochetkov is under contract for four more years - worked last season, to some extent, but there's no way Carolina brass is feeling super comfortable right now. Andersen and Raanta both have long injury histories, which essentially leaves the fate of a Cup-contending team in Kochetkov's hands. In 2022-23, Andersen started 33 games, Raanta 26, and Kochetkov 23. Will we see a similar split next year? Not ideal.
Signings: Rangers add F Blake Wheeler, G Jonathan Quick on 1-year deals
Analysis: Wheeler and Quick are both past their primes - you know that, I know that, and the Rangers know that. However, there's very little downside to either deal. In Wheeler, New York is getting a high-end passer who can help its power play for only $800,000 (plus bonuses). In Quick, New York is getting a veteran, Cup-winning netminder to back-up superstar Igor Shesterkin for only $825,000 (plus bonuses). Put another way: The Rangers are paying peanuts for secondary scoring and mentorship. Very nice bet.
Signing: Predators sign F Ryan O'Reilly to 4-year contract
Analysis: What's left in O'Reilly's tank? That's what comes to mind as the 2019 Stanley Cup champion inks a deal that'll take him past his 36th birthday. While O'Reilly remains an effective two-way center deserving of his new $4.5 million cap hit, I'm a tad worried about the term here. Mind you, the security is presumably what sealed it for the Preds, with two of O'Reilly's former teams - Toronto and St. Louis - reportedly also interested in signing him. Still, I don't love committing four years to an ex-star who started to show signs of decline at times in 2022-23.
Signing: Predators sign D Luke Schenn to 3-year deal
Analysis: Barry Trotz continues to put his stamp on the Predators in the early days of his tenure as GM. This particular move, which comes on the heels of Trotz trading Ryan Johansen and buying out Matt Duchene, certainly lines up with Nashville's hurried timeline. The club is retooling versus rebuilding, and Schenn, 34 in November, is definitely a "win-now" type of defender. It's also easy to feel good for Schenn, who's getting a hefty payday ($2.75 million annually) following a strong postseason with Toronto. He previously signed four straight cheap short-term contracts.
Signing: Blue Jackets sign F Adam Fantilli to 3-year, entry-level deal
Analysis: Well, that was fast. Three days after Columbus picked Fantilli third overall in the draft, the center is turning pro. Fantilli, the Hobey Baker award winner this past season, had little left to prove at the NCAA level, and was said to be open to leaving the University of Michigan even before he landed in the Blue Jackets' lap Wednesday. The free-agent signing period is barely underway and this is already a huge day for small-market Columbus: Fantilli, the type of star-caliber pivot who's been elusive for the franchise, is officially in the fold, and Mike Babcock, a high-profile coach, is officially taking over behind the bench, having been unveiled to local reporters Saturday morning.
Signing: Sharks sign G Mackenzie Blackwood to 2-year deal
Analysis: Interesting play here from Mike Grier. The Sharks GM acquired Blackwood for a sixth-round pick earlier in the week, then in short order signed the goalie to a multi-year deal carrying a $2.35-million cap hit. Blackwood, 26, needed a change of scenery after going through several hellacious seasons of injury and poor performance in New Jersey; this is the previously highly touted netminder's golden chance at redemption. It's likely Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen split the goalie load in 2023-24. The rebuilding Sharks are essentially throwing darts at the board in hopes of finding a reliable goalie.
Signing: Maple Leafs sign F Ryan Reaves to 3-year deal
Analysis: My first thought when seeing this deal: Is this really how Toronto's going to allocate its limited cap space? For a team in desperate need of bottom-six offense, especially come playoff time, the 36-year-old Reaves isn't worth it at $1.35 million annually. I get the attraction, though: he's an energetic, intimidating fourth-liner with a big personality. And he can be an asset to a club like the Leafs, if the stars align. But at this price (league minimum would have been fine), for this term, and in this flat-cap world? Nope, not a fan.
Signing: Panthers sign D Oliver Ekman-Larsson to 1-year deal
Analysis: If Ekman-Larsson is Marc Staal's replacement on Florida's third pair - which appears to be the case - I'm giving Panthers general manager Bill Zito a thumbs-up here. Ekman-Larsson's stock is extremely low after being bought out by the Canucks, and, yes, the Swede has lost a step over the past few years. In a sheltered role on the left side, though, the soon-to-be 32-year-old puck-mover should have no issues living up to the $2.25-million cap hit.
Signing: Red Wings sign F Klim Kostin to 2-year deal
Analysis: Kostin's contract carries an average annual value of $2 million and he brings size and strength to the middle six of a team with aspirations of climbing the Atlantic Division standings next season. The last pick of the first round in 2017, Kostin hasn't popped offensively since breaking into the NHL in 2021-22. However, his 11 goals in 57 games last year shows he's not simply a physical presence. Detroit acquired the rights to Kostin and Kailer Yamamoto from Edmonton on Thursday in a salary dump for the Oilers. I like the deal for the Wings: the term is short and the cap hit's reasonable.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).
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