Biden stability beats Trump volatility in 2024 match-up, experts suggest

Political scientists read the Republican runes and suggest Trump will win the nomination - but how would he fare in a 2020 rematch?

As it stands, political scientists expect Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination for president. Most GOP candidates are in lockstep with Trumpist policies and culture wars, failing to differentiate in an already scattered field; despite the appearance of a united front, factions within the party cannot agree on when and how to pass hardline legislation. Traditional conservative forces are looking for a less volatile alternative with a more viable path to win the general election, and as that concern mounts, some experts say Biden could be narrowly re-elected if the race is a rematch of 2020.

Trump is the mainstream," said Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, pointing out that so-called mainstream Republicans" such as Liz Cheney are now out of office.