HOF Game betting preview: Jets-Browns to mostly feature backups
As the calendar flips to August, an abundance of "football is back" moments are on the horizon. There are none quite like the Hall of Fame Game, the first opportunity opposing teams have to collide since the Super Bowl in February.
The helmets clashing, whistles blowing, and pads popping are the first true reminders that football - meaningful football - is just a few weeks away.
This year's Hall of Fame Game pits the Jets against the Browns in Canton, Ohio. The rest of the preseason slate kicks off one week later on Thursday, Aug. 10.
Jets (-1.5) vs. Browns, O/U 33.5The Jets announced their starters won't suit up in the preseason opener, which means fans will have to wait to see newly acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers in action. Rodgers hasn't played a preseason game since 2018 and is unlikely to this year, either. Zach Wilson will thus take the reins under center.
Despite Jets fans' disdain for Wilson after his struggles last season prevented New York from reaching its potential, the former second overall pick is a solid backup. He could even eventually return to starter status under Rodgers' guidance.
Wilson also played a lot of meaningful football in his two years. Even though it was rarely pretty, that experience bodes well for him in a preseason setting with little pressure to perform.
The Jets' third-string signal-caller is Tim Boyle. If you haven't heard of him, it's because he hasn't taken too many snaps in his four years bouncing around the NFL. However, he'll likely get playing time behind Wilson on Thursday.
The Browns said both starting quarterback Deshaun Watson and backup Joshua Dobbs will be inactive. Kellen Mond will start the first half under center, and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start the second. Cleveland hasn't made an official announcement about the rest of the roster, but most of the starters are expected to sit.
The Jets and Browns will play a total of four preseason games, while other teams play three.
It's important to remember this game is treated as more of an audition than an exhibition. The majority of the players playing won't take the field most Sundays when the regular season begins. Many are simply vying for a roster spot.
It's hard to provide meaningful analysis of teams full of inexperienced players, especially when individual performance matters more than the final score.
However, there has been telling line movement this week. The Browns opened as favorites, and the line climbed to as high as 2 on Monday. At that point, Jets coach Robert Saleh had made his plans clear for who was playing. The Browns' strategy was a bigger mystery.
By Tuesday morning, the line flipped 3.5 points in favor of the Jets, who are now 1.5-point favorites. The line shift was likely due to the Browns' announcement of their quarterback plans.
In a game between second and third-stringers, the market is saying it favors the Jets' depth more than the Browns'.
I lean toward laying the Jets at -1.5 because quarterbacks are a good indicator of team success, even in the preseason, and I trust Wilson more than any Cleveland backup. Favorites are also 12-4 straight up in the Hall of Fame Game since 2005.
If you're interested in taking a side on the total, I'd lean the under. The 33.5 number is one of the lowest anyone will see for a preseason or regular season game this year, but with virtually all bench players playing and limited practice time since training camp opened, points will be hard to come by.
Seven of the last 10 Hall of Fame Games have gone under the total.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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