What the odds say: Which rookie WR will have the most receiving yards?
Week 1 of the preseason is in the books. With weeks to go before meaningful football begins on Sept. 7, there's only one thing to do following a weekend of entertaining, sometimes unwatchable, and undoubtedly meaningless football. It's time to overreact.
While fans inevitably begin to make proclamations about a team's future based on 10 snaps from a rookie quarterback, the betting markets know better.
Most established players don't play in the preseason. The games are filled with players vying to make rosters and rookies itching to get as many NFL reps under their belts as possible before the games matter in September.
Rookies are usually the only potentially impactful players who play extensively in the preseason. With eight wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds of this year's NFL draft, many rookie wideouts had notable performances over the weekend. So who will have the best season?
Most receiving yards by a rookie odds| Player | odds |
|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +300 |
| Jordan Addison | +300 |
| Quentin Johnston | +400 |
| Zay Flowers | +600 |
| Jonathan Mingo | +1400 |
| Rashee Rice | +1800 |
| Dalton Kincaid | +2200 |
| Jalin Hyatt | +2500 |
| Jayden Reed | +2500 |
The top rookie selected in the 2023 draft is the co-favorite to rack up the most receiving yards among his fellow draftees. The Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20th overall, creating even more depth in a talented wide receiver room.
After an incredible Ohio State career, Smith-Njigba was an easy choice as the first receiver drafted. He joins star DK Metcalf and veteran Tyler Lockett as starting wideouts to help ensure Geno Smith replicates the season he had last year.
In his first preseason game against the Vikings, Smith-Njigba flashed his potential in limited snaps. He totaled three catches for 25 yards on four targets. The Seahawks haven't drafted a receiver as high as Smith-Njigba since 2001, meaning he'll be featured plenty in Year 1. He has the fourth-best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +800.
Jordan Addison was across the sideline during Thursday night's preseason showdown. He was the 24th overall pick and the fourth receiver drafted.
Addison (+1500 to win OROY) played scarce snaps in the game but had one official catch for 22 yards. He also had a toe-dragging snag on the sideline, but it was ruled incomplete despite it clearly being a catch.
This was ruled incomplete, but it was absolutely a catch by Jordan Addison. Beautiful pic.twitter.com/T7AI34zBRK
- Billy M (@BillyM_91) August 11, 2023
In a pass-heavy offense with Kirk Cousins under center, Addison could see a significant workload. Justin Jefferson will command exceptional attention from the defense, which should free up Addison.
Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers round out the first-round rookies and, to no surprise, have the next-best odds. They're also both +2000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Johnston caught three passes, including one for a touchdown in the Chargers' preseason win on Saturday.
When the Ravens drafted Flowers with the 23rd pick, they were desperate for playmakers at wide receiver. Lamar Jackson is Baltimore's quarterback for the foreseeable future, so it's on the Ravens to surround him with the necessary weapons, which is exactly what they did.
It's rare a rookie is considered a team's top wide receiver, especially on a contending team, but it's possible that's the case. Reports from training camp have praised Flowers' abilities, and with Odell Beckham Jr. returning from an ACL injury, the door is open. Of course, Rashod Bateman will command a ton of, if not most, targets from Jackson.
Flowers barely played in the Ravens' preseason opener. If the hype surrounding Flowers pans out and he has the largest role among rookie wideouts, he very well could lead all first-year receivers in yards.
There's a substantial drop in odds following the top four. Jonathan Mingo, Rashee Rice, Jalin Hyatt, and Jayden Reed were all drafted in the second or third rounds.
Rice was drafted by the Chiefs, pairing him with the best quarterback in the NFL. While that should set him up for success later on, it may take some time before he becomes a major piece on a championship offense.
Reed may have the most promise of the second-rounders. He was the sixth wideout selected. The Packers refused to draft a wide receiver the last few seasons with Aaron Rodgers as the signal-caller but seemingly realized they needed to find Jordan Love immediate help. In an unproven wide receiver room, there's a chance Reed can become the guy.
This catch by Jayden Reed pic.twitter.com/2S6oC5DSIH
- NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) August 12, 2023
Tight end Dalton Kincaid has the seventh-best odds. The first-rounder from Utah was selected by the Bills as a complement to top tight end Dawson Knox. Kincaid didn't receive any targets in the Bills' first preseason game, but with both Knox and Kincaid, expect the Bills to run more two-tight end sets.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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