What the odds say: How will Zeke, Cook fare with new teams?
It took some time, but two of the best running backs over the last half-decade have found homes for the 2023 season. Ezekiel Elliott signed with the Patriots, and Dalvin Cook signed with the Jets.
Two playoff contenders in the gauntlet that is the AFC East bolstered their running back rooms - and they're hoping their offense, too. But how much do Elliott and Cook really have left in the tank? And what do the betting markets expect their production to look like?
Elliott signed a one-year deal reportedly worth up to $6 million, while Cook inked a one-year deal reportedly worth up to $8.6 million, meaning there was a greater market for Cook than Elliott.
Over/under total touchdowns and rushing yards| Player | TD | Rushing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4.5 | 400.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5.5 | 650.5 |
No one expects Elliott or Cook to earn the rushing crown this season. Both running backs are at the backend of their careers. Yes, they're both just 28 years old, but the shelf life for a running back is much shorter than most positions.
It's rare for a running back to play - or at least be productive - into their 30s, especially considering Elliott's and Cook's career workloads. Elliott is entering Year 8 in the NFL, and Cook is beginning Year 7.
In the classic film "Moneyball," Billy Beane tells David Justice, "I'm not paying you for the player you used to be. I'm paying you for the player you are now."
Neither team signed these guys to be the running backs they were. Both organizations want to maximize whatever the rushers have left in their accomplished careers. And both guys were brought in to provide relief rather than be asked to carry a huge load.
Let's start with Elliott and the Patriots. New England had the ninth-worst rushing attack last season. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for over 1,000 yards on 210 carries as a second-year lead back.
Stevenson is still expected to be the starting running back this season. Elliott might be the backup on the depth chart, but he'll still get ample opportunities. At this stage in his career, he doesn't have the burst to consistently be part of first- and second-down situations. Stevenson also caught 69 passes last year, so adding Elliott can create more pass-catching opportunities for Stevenson in two-RB sets, also known as 21 personnel.
Elliott became used to this role when he split carries with Tony Pollard last season. Elliott still got more touches than Pollard last year, but he averaged 3.8 yards per carry compared to Pollard's 5.2, which is why the Cowboys cut ties with Elliott.
Elliott should increase his efficiency despite decreasing his carries. With a rushing yardage line of 400.5, the market suggests Elliott's usage and productivity are heading south with the Patriots. The fewest yards Elliott has rushed for in a season was 876 last season.
Elliott has never scored fewer than six rushing touchdowns. In a rough 2022, Elliott found the end zone 12 times. Even if Elliott's responsibilities are cut in half, it'd be wise to use him in goal-line situations. Four touchdowns seems low.
Cook has more to offer than Elliott. Although the Vikings didn't need his services anymore, he had many suitors. Like the Patriots, New York ranked toward the bottom of the league in rushing yards last year.
That was largely due to starting rookie back Breece Hall's season-ending ACL injury in Week 7. Hall was on pace to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards and become one of the premier backs in the NFL.
On Tuesday, Hall was removed from the physically unable to perform list, meaning he returned to practice in a limited capacity.
Hall may be active by Week 1, but he won't be ready to resume his role as a full-time back, which is why the Jets brought in Cook. Cook showed he still has gas left in the tank, rushing for 1,173 yards on 264 carries in 2022, the second most in his career.
Hall is part of the Jets' future, so when he's fully healthy, he'll resume his services as the lead back, assuming his athleticism and burst are unchanged. But that might be a while. Cook will start the season as the starter, and even when Hall comes back, there's a good chance the Jets implement a committee approach.
It's baffling that Cook's rushing total is as low as 650.5, given his productivity last season and his expected opportunity this season, at least to begin the year. Cook's touchdown line makes more sense. He's struggled to regularly find the end zone in recent years, averaging seven touchdowns a season the last two years.
With Aaron Rodgers under center and Nathaniel Hackett calling plays, the Jets' pass-heavy approach could be a detriment to the rushing game. I still expect over 650 rushing yards for Cook this season.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on social media @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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