NFL season-long props: Teams to have the most, fewest wins
The defending conference champions are the favorites to win the AFC and NFC.
The Eagles and the Chiefs each won 14 games last year, which led the NFL and earned them the one seeds en route to Super Bowl appearances. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs are the favorites (+400), and the Eagles are the second favorites (+500) to have the most regular season wins.
Both organizations returned their core pieces while retooling at positions of need. The Eagles are +250 to win a weaker NFC, while the Chiefs are +350 to win a deep and star-quarterback-heavy AFC.
Earning the No. 1 seed, a bye, and home-field advantage creates a much easier path to the Super Bowl. Winning the most regular season games is the most straightforward route to repeat as conference champs.
But returning to the Super Bowl is much harder than making it once. Only eight teams in NFL history have returned to the Super Bowl following a loss. Only three teams that won the Super Bowl since 2004 have returned the next season, and none repeated as champs.
While the Chiefs and Eagles may be the favorites to win the most games, there are inevitable roadblocks.
Most regular season wins odds| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | +400 |
| Eagles | +500 |
| Bengals | +750 |
| Bills | +750 |
| 49ers | +800 |
| Cowboys | +1100 |
| Ravens | +1200 |
| Jaguars | +1500 |
The Eagles have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL. They play their division opponents - all of whom are potential playoff contenders - twice. The NFC East is also paired up with the AFC East, by far the best division in football.
The Eagles have a November stretch against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and then Cowboys again - four of the six teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl. This year won't be smooth sailing for Philadelphia. Philadelphia and Dallas share many of the same opponents, which, as a result, eliminates the Cowboys from having the most wins.
The Bills also have an extremely challenging schedule playing in the AFC East. Facing the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots twice in a season isn't a recipe to get to 13 or 14 wins.
The Bengals are as complete as any team in the AFC and have a manageable schedule. The only concern is Joe Burrow's health. Burrow suffered a calf injury early on in training camp and his status for the start of the season is uncertain despite optimistic reports about his progress.
It's hard to predict an AFC team will have the most wins in the league given how deep the conference is. Some really good teams are going to miss the playoffs, and some great teams are going to have worse records strictly because of an elevated level of competition.
It's a different story in the NFC with mostly lackluster quarterbacks and few Super Bowl contenders.
The 49ers have the second-highest projected win total in the NFC behind the Eagles and the fourth-highest in the NFL.
San Francisco has a reasonable schedule and, other than quarterback, the best roster in football. If the 49ers had a reliable quarterback situation, they'd be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Last year, San Francisco won 13 games, one game behind the best record in football. It's safe to assume the 49ers will earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season with either 13 or 14 wins.
Pick: 49ers +800
Fewest regular season wins odds| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cardinals | +220 |
| Buccaneers | +700 |
| Texans | +850 |
| Rams | +950 |
| Commanders | +1000 |
| Raiders | +1000 |
| Colts | +1400 |
| Patriots | +1500 |
Only two teams this century have gone winless - the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns. But every year there are a few teams that win three or four games. It's usually easy to predict who's in competition for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
The Cardinals have the lowest win total at 4.5, two full games lower than the next lowest at 6.5.
The Cardinals' roster is atrocious, and after a four-win season, bringing in a new coach can only change so much. After a promising start to his career, Kyler Murray's regression is concerning. His future in Arizona is murky. This season is crucial in determining if the Cardinals need to make a change at quarterback just two seasons removed from his five-year extension.
Murray doesn't have the necessary surrounding talent to drag Arizona to the playoffs, but, in a prove-it year for him, can silence some critics en route to at least five wins.
Three seasons removed from a Super Bowl win, the Bucs are now the bottom feeders of the NFL as Tom Brady decided to retire for good. Baker Mayfield will start the season under center with Kyle Trask lurking as the backup.
The Bucs are doomed for a disastrous season, but it might be a blessing in disguise if it can help them land a top pick and a quarterback to turn the franchise around.
When rookie quarterbacks struggle, their teams struggle. The Texans and Colts are strutting out C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, respectively, with the former considered a more sure thing than the latter.
The Colts won four games last season, while the Texans won three. Other than quarterback, neither team made drastic roster improvements expected to lead to immediate turnarounds. Stroud or Richardson aren't the second coming of Brady, and it's rare for a rookie quarterback to lead his team to a plethora of wins in the first year.
I believe Richardson is in for a rough welcome to the big leagues, which will lead to lots of ugly losses.
Pick: Colts +1400
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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