Offensive Rookie of the Year betting: Will Bijan run away with it?
With the NFL season beginning in just over a week, the focus is rightfully on the teams that can win now and the players who can get them there.
But a new crop of superstars entered the league in April's draft. While most of them are likely years away from impacting winning, it's worth paying attention to the guys who will be atop the NFL in a few seasons.
Almost all of the recent Offensive Rookie of the Year winners became household names for at least a few years regardless of their position.
Let's find out who's likely to be the next player to join the NFL's pantheon.
Offensive Rookie of the Year odds| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +250 |
| Bryce Young | +500 |
| Anthony Richardson | +550 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +900 |
| C.J. Stroud | +1000 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +1500 |
| Jordan Addison | +1500 |
| Quentin Johnston | +2000 |
| Zay Flowers | +2200 |
| Jalin Hyatt | +2500 |
| Will Levis | +3000 |
Odds via theScore Bet
The Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson eighth overall, a sign he'll immediately have a sizable role in the offense. However, the Falcons aren't projected to win many games this season as they will rely on second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder and first-year running back Robinson. Nothing screams "rebuild" like that combo.
With a rebuilding team, patience is key. Ridder is the more important project because quarterback is the more essential position, but Robinson is the player who should be ready to shine instantly.
Robinson rushed for over 1,500 yards and 18 touchdowns last season at Texas. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry and was the clear choice as the first running back off the board.
Running backs aren't exactly at a premium these days. Drafting one in the top 10 is like reading a print newspaper - there are teams, and people, who still do it, but it's rare.
From 2015-18, five running backs were selected in the top 10. Robinson was the first running back drafted in the top 10 since Saquan Barkley in 2018, and Barkley won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Robinson's top-10 selection speaks volumes about his potential based on how undervalued the position has become.
The Falcons' offense will rely heavily on the run game, especially considering it boasts the seventh-best offensive line in football, according to PFF.
Forget rookies: Robinson is projected as one of the best running backs in the league full stop. He has the fourth-best odds to lead the NFL in rushing at +1200, behind Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor.
If he did it, he would be the first rookie running back to accomplish the feat since Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. Elliott was the runner-up for OROY to his teammate Dak Prescott.
Robinson's rushing yards line is 1,075.5. If he rushes for over 1,000 yards, he'll be in a great position to take home the honor, barring an incredible season from a quarterback or wideout.
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young is the second favorite and the top quarterback on the odds list. The Panthers were solid in 2022 before Young's arrival, and the addition of Miles Sanders at running back gives him some more help. Young has the intangibles to be the next great quarterback from Alabama.
The last two quarterbacks to win the award were Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray in 2020 and 2019, respectively. Herbert threw for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns his rookie year, while Murray threw for 3,772 yards and 20 touchdowns.
The oddsmakers set Young's passing yards at 3,200.5 and his touchdowns at 22.5. With Robinson expected to put up massive numbers, Young would have to sprint past those totals to capture the award.
Four wide receivers were drafted in the first round - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Quentin Johnston. All have odds of +2200 or shorter to win.
Among wideouts, Addison has the best chance at a memorable rookie campaign. The Vikings receiver has the best odds to have the most regular-season receiving yards by a rookie at +275, despite being the fourth wide receiver selected.
Smith-Njigba was the top receiver off the board in April. However, he recently underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his wrist. He should be back in the next few weeks, but will start his inaugural season on the sideline.
Addison's insertion into one of the NFL's highest-scoring offenses as its second wide receiver makes his candidacy strong. He's lining up alongside Justin Jefferson, the best receiver in the league. Jefferson's presence commands an incredible amount of attention from defenses, allowing Addison space to roam.
The Pittsburgh product will also be catching balls from Kirk Cousins - a terrific passer - in an offensive system that attempted passes on 62% of its plays last season.
Addison is a long shot, but if Robinson flops and no quarterback shines, it's Addison's award as potentially another great receiver in Minnesota.
Picks: Bijan Robinson, +250, Jordan Addison +1500
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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