What the odds say: How is Rodgers expected to perform in Jets debut?
The Week 1 finale is the opening act of a new chapter in Aaron Rodgers' Hall of Fame career. Rodgers' Jets debut comes on Monday Night Football against a divisional foe: the Bills.
Despite the expectation surrounding the Jets and the buzz expected at MetLife Stadium Monday night with a star-studded list of celebrities in attendance, New York is 2.5-point underdogs against the Bills, who have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl.
While football is the ultimate team sport, Monday's contest is about one man. Rodgers is two years removed from back-to-back MVP awards but had one of the worst years of his career last season. However, he's seemingly refreshed and determined in a new city. Monday is the first chance for the world to see whether that translates to his on-field performance.
So, what are reasonable expectations oddsmakers have set for Rodgers in his debut?
Aaron Rodgers MNF props| Prop | Total(O/U) |
|---|---|
| Passing yards | 232.5 (-115/-115) |
| Passing touchdowns | 1.5 (+115/-155) |
| Passing attempts | 33.5 (-110/-120) |
| Completions | 21.5 (-120/-110) |
| Longest completion | 35.5 (even/-130) |
The Jets' defense was terrific last year. However, their quarterback situation was a huge reason - Jets fans may argue the sole reason - they missed out on the playoffs.
Rodgers' pedigree flipped that notion for this season. He's also back with Nathaniel Hackett, Rodgers' offensive coordinator when he won two straight MVPs.
Rodgers' weapons are plentiful in New York. Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson is the top target, along with Mecole Hardman Jr. and Rodgers' former Packers teammate Allen Lazard.
The biggest concern is keeping the quarterback upright. The Jets offensive line ranks 23rd in the league, according to PFF. There's nothing more important than protecting Rodgers. While the offensive line was reportedly a concern throughout training camp, we'll find out soon whether it'll derail a potentially magical season.
Rodgers eclipsed 232 passing yards just six times in 2022, but he had a down year. However, he broke 232 yards in 11 out of 16 games in 2021 - his last campaign alongside Hackett. Rodgers also had more than 22 completions in 13 contests that season and threw multiple passing touchdowns in every game except two.
Even last season, Rodgers threw at least two touchdowns in most matchups.
Hackett likes to put the ball in Rodgers' hands consistently. Who wouldn't with a signal-caller as cerebral and gifted as Rodgers?
The Jets have an explosive backfield with Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall, even though Monday is Hall's first game back from a torn ACL. New York's rushers could take opportunities away from Rodgers, although it would ultimately help the team.
The Bills have an elite defense, which makes an already pressure-filled debut even more challenging for Rodgers.
Oddsmakers are expecting Josh Allen to outperform Rodgers, with his passing yards set at 251.5. The market expects a close game, but all signs point toward a Bills win in the oddsmakers' eyes.
But our eyes say otherwise. The Jets have a difficult first six games with matchups against the Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Patriots, and Broncos. It'll be a successful stretch to make it through 3-3.
The first win of the season and of Rodgers' Jets career will come tonight. Despite Allen's presence, Buffalo still has question marks offensively.
This might be the most highly anticipated Jets game at MetLife in over a decade. Expect an electric atmosphere. There's no doubt Rodgers can and will meet the moment. Great quarterbacks elevate the play of everyone around them. Rodgers' greatness will be on full display.
In addition to Jets moneyline, theScore Bet is offering a special for Rodgers to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns and the Jets to win at +240.
Entering this season, divisional home underdogs were 15-2-1 against the spread and 10-6-2 straight up in Week 1 since 2012. That trend failed to provide dividends Sunday as the Browns were the only home underdog that won in a divisional matchup - the Giants lost to the Cowboys and the Colts lost to the Jaguars in the other two games that qualified.
Despite the 1-2 record Sunday, it's still a profitable trend over the long run and will hold true Monday night as the Jets enter as slight underdogs.
As I outlined earlier, Rodgers has multiple touchdown games more often than not. He tossed two touchdowns last season when the Packers played at Buffalo.
After months of anticipation as he paraded around the New York scene, the day when Rodgers dons the sleek green and white has finally arrived.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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