Norris Trophy Rankings: It's Makar's to lose as young wave takes over
Welcome to the first edition of theScore's 2023-24 Norris Trophy Power Rankings. New rankings will be published once a month throughout the season.
Note: All stats from 2022-23
xGF% = five-on-five expected goals for percentage
Kavin Mistry / National Hockey League / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 25 | 76 | 25:37 | 50.65 |
Can Karlsson repeat his historically great 2022-23 campaign in which he became the first defenseman since 1991-92 - and only the sixth ever - to reach 100 points in a season?
There's no putting it past him if he can stay healthy, especially with the move to Pittsburgh. Karlsson will have a significantly more talented supporting cast with the Penguins than in San Jose.
However, it seems somewhat unlikely that Karlsson will reach those heights again. He's 33 years old and due for some shooting percentage regression. If the offense plateaus a bit, he doesn't have the defensive game to make up for it.
As great as Karlsson is, there's a crop of younger, ascending defensemen with better two-way profiles who we couldn't help but put ahead.
4. Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres
Bill Wippert / National Hockey League / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 15 | 58 | 25:48 | 52.08 |
Dahlin enjoyed various levels of success in his first four NHL seasons, but he exploded in Year 5 for 78 points and finished eighth in Norris voting. With his ridiculous offensive skill set, it was only a matter of time before everything came together for a spectacular campaign.
When the Sabres drafted Dahlin first overall in 2018, he drew comparisons to Karlsson and Nicklas Lidstrom. While it may have been unfair to stack him up against arguably the two best Swedish defensemen of all time before he even played a game, that's how good of a prospect he was.
Dahlin is just 23 years old and the cornerstone for an emerging, prolific offensive Sabres team. There's no reason he can't take his game to greater heights in 2023-24. His biggest downfall last season was his lack of discipline, taking 92 penalty minutes. If he can stay out of the box, he could win the Norris next season.
3. Miro Heiskanen, Stars
Steph Chambers / Getty Images Sport / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 11 | 62 | 25:29 | 54.26 |
Heiskanen is on a similar trajectory as Dahlin. A quality player in his first four NHL campaigns, Heiskanen went off in Year 5, more than doubling his previous career high in points with a robust 73.
But while Dahlin is best at using his slick hands to create offense, Heiskanen uses his feet. The 24-year-old is one of the league's most naturally gifted, effortless skaters. He uses his skating to wheel the puck out of trouble, create room in the offensive zone, and thwart opposing attacks while on the defensive end.
Heiskanen is easily the best defensive defenseman to crack this list. If he continues to find ways to improve offensively, it'll be impossible for voters to keep him out of their top three after he finished seventh last season.
2. Adam Fox, Rangers
Elsa / Getty Images Sport / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 12 | 60 | 24:23 | 54.93 |
Fox is set to enter his fifth NHL campaign, and his resume is already quite impressive. He won the Norris in 2021, finished fifth in 2022, and was the runner-up to Karlsson in 2023.
The 25-year-old doesn't possess the same flashy skills as other players on this list. He's only 5-foot-11, 182 pounds, and he's not the most explosive skater. However, his intelligence and vision are some of the best in the game.
Fox has posted outstanding metrics at both ends of the ice in his career, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue in 2023-24. But as great as Fox is, there's a distant gap between him and No. 1 on our list.
1. Cale Makar, Avalanche
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 17 | 49 | 26:23 | 56.94 |
There's simply no argument that Makar isn't the best defenseman in the league. Heck, there's a case to be made that he's the second-best overall player in the sport behind Connor McDavid.
If he didn't get hurt last season, he might've given Karlsson a run for his money and claimed his second straight Norris Trophy. Makar still finished third despite missing 22 contests (and probably playing some games at less than 100%).
It's hard to envision Makar not winning the Norris if he can stay healthy and the team around him can at least stay somewhat healthy after injuries decimated the roster in 2022-23.
Makar is one of the most dynamic offensive defensemen we've ever seen. His skating and puck skills are better than some of the game's best forwards. But the 24-year-old has also used his skating and hockey IQ to become a supremely underrated player defensively - he's more tenacious than he gets credit for.
Despite the young wave of competition, Makar has to be considered the resounding favorite.
Don't sleep on: Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, Charlie McAvoy, Dougie Hamilton, Quinn Hughes, Moritz Seider, Evan Bouchard
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)
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