Week 5 betting storylines: Battle among the NFC's best

The NFL is a week-to-week league. One week, the Dolphins pour in 70 points and are considered the cream of the crop, and the next, they're struggling to compete with the Bills, their divisional foes.

As the results and storylines change, the odds do too. The Dolphins were favored to win the AFC East before they played the Bills. Then it flipped, and the Bills are now the favorites.

We break down the most pressing storylines and matchups in Week 5 that have potential ripple effects. Let's dive in.

NFC contenders meet on Sunday Night Football

The class of the NFC will battle it out Sunday night when the Cowboys visit the 49ers. San Francisco is a 4-point favorite. Other than the Eagles, the Cowboys and 49ers are considered two of the best teams in the conference and the league.

The 49ers have the best odds to win the NFC at +200 and second-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +600 (bet $10 to win $60). The Cowboys have the third-best odds to win the NFC (+450) and fifth-best to win the Super Bowl (+1000). Those odds would shift in favor of the Cowboys with a Dallas win and likely remain the same if San Francisco wins.

The 49ers have yet to lose, while the Cowboys' only loss to the putrid Cardinals was shocking. The Cowboys' average margin of victory in their three wins is 31.7, so excepting its one outlier loss, Dallas has dominated its opponents.

The Cowboys and 49ers have explosive defenses headlined by dominant pass-rushers, which should create challenges for each quarterback. Both defenses rank in the top three in opponent points per game. They also each have a top-four scoring offense.

The over/under currently stands at 44.5. San Francisco has yet to score fewer than 30 points in a game.

This is a rematch of last year's divisional-round playoff game, where the 49ers narrowly edged the Cowboys 19-12. Defenses shined in San Francisco that January afternoon and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott threw two interceptions in the loss.

Dallas may be looking for revenge, but the 49ers are the slightly better team and they're at home, which is why they're favored.

Prescott's passing-yards total is lower than usual at 242.5, which makes sense given the tenacity of the Niners' defense. Brock Purdy's passing yards are set at 237.5. Prescott is -134 (57% implied probability) to throw an interception, while Purdy is +120 (45% implied probability).

While the Cowboys and 49ers have to go through the reigning defending NFC champs en route to a potential Super Bowl - the Eagles play both teams in the coming weeks - this game can shift the balance of power in the NFC just a few weeks into the season.

Intriguing AFC matchups on deck

Let's start with a game that'll be played across the pond involving two AFC contenders. The Jaguars and Bills both lost in the divisional round of the playoffs last year to the Chiefs and Bengals, respectively.

The two teams' timelines are not exactly parallel, but they each have Super Bowl aspirations nonetheless. The Jaguars were lucky to get that deep in the playoffs with a second-year quarterback.

The Bills, however, fell short of expectations in the last few seasons. This year - with a competitive but wide-open AFC - could be the year they finally break through. After a disappointing opener, the Bills have won three straight, and Josh Allen has emerged as the MVP front-runner. Buffalo is tied for the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl.

The Jaguars have had an inconsistent start to the season but seemed to find their offensive groove in a win against the Falcons last week. Jacksonville has the 11th-best odds to win the Super Bowl, tied for the fifth-best among AFC teams.

The Bills are 5.5-point favorites for Sunday morning's London game with an over/under at 48.5. The Jaguars played in London last week as well, so they've been practicing in England all week.

Allen and Trevor Lawrence are two of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. Oddsmakers expect a better showing from Allen with a passing-yards line at 258.5. Lawrence's is at 247.5, and he has the ninth-best odds to win MVP at +2500.

Another AFC showdown between the Ravens and Steelers will have consequences in the AFC North, and thus the entire conference.

The Ravens are currently the favorites to win the division at -120, followed by the Browns (+300), Steelers (+550), and Bengals (+600). They're also flying slightly under the radar as contenders in the AFC with the fourth-best odds to win the conference (+750).

The Ravens are 3-1, while the Steelers are 2-2, so a Steelers win would propel them to first place in the division, considering Pittsburgh already beat Cleveland.

The Steelers are 4-point home underdogs. As Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin is 17-5-3 against the spread as a home underdog.

Pittsburgh's quarterback situation for Sunday is uncertain after Kenny Pickett left last week's game with a bone bruise in his knee. It's not considered serious and he has not yet been ruled out for Week 5. If he can't play, Mitch Trubisky will be the starter.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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