NFL Week 5 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
Beware of the game after the big game.
The Bills smoked the Dolphins in Week 4. What happens next is a common occurrence and might be the best situation to be profitable in the NFL.
Buffalo's rating shot to the highest point of our prescribed range for them - despite the team losing its best cornerback, Tre'Davious White, for the season. That created an inflated betting line for the Bills' trip to Jacksonville. The spread didn't come into play, but a larger number there led to an increased moneyline, which - if you can recognize the inflation - would have coaxed you into backing the Jags for the upset that they pulled off.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where within its range a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 75 | 60-80 |
| Chiefs | 74 | 60-80 |
| Bills | 74 | 55-75 |
| Eagles | 69 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 68 | 60-80 |
| Dolphins | 65 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 63 | 50-70 |
| Lions | 58 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 57 | 50-70 |
| Jaguars | 54 | 45-65 |
| Vikings | 54 | 35-55 |
| Seahawks | 51 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 51 | 40-60 |
| Titans | 50 | 35-55 |
| Patriots | 50 | 35-55 |
| Browns | 46 | 40-60 |
| Rams | 46 | 35-55 |
| Raiders | 45 | 30-50 |
| Packers | 44 | 40-60 |
| Bengals | 43 | 40-75 |
| Broncos | 43 | 35-55 |
| Buccaneers | 41 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 41 | 35-55 |
| Steelers | 41 | 40-60 |
| Commanders | 40 | 35-55 |
| Jets | 39 | 30-50 |
| Texans | 38 | 25-45 |
| Colts | 36 | 25-45 |
| Panthers | 30 | 25-45 |
| Giants | 27 | 25-45 |
| Cardinals | 25 | 20-40 |
| Bears | 25 | 20-40 |
The 49ers might extend the gap atop the league after annihilating Dallas on Sunday Night Football. What's tricky for this coming week is that the Browns' rating - off a bye - is still tied to their closing point spread when Dorian Thompson-Robinson was forced into action right before kickoff against the Ravens. If we look back to Week 3's market report, we estimated Cleveland at 55/100 with a healthy Deshaun Watson before they suffocated the Titans. If he's back and healthy, this week's line would be -3.5 before considering a bump up for the Niners.
Since we're estimating here, we'll assign the Ravens a bump from 60 to 63 for dominating the Browns - even if it was against their backup quarterback. By that logic, the Steelers get a considerable downgrade after losing horribly in Houston. With two teams headed in opposite directions off of one week's results and some low-level injury considerations, a bet on Pittsburgh at +4 had to be made. Sure enough, the Steelers won in classic fashion, while the Ravens lost in the same way they usually do.
It's not always a situation where a favorite is too big. The Falcons saw their rating drop after losing two in a row, while the aforementioned Texans win - their second in a row - gave them enough of a bump to get Sunday's tilt between the two lined under a field goal. Of course, getting the best of the number swung the spread result as Atlanta covered -1.5, but not -2.5, and vice-versa.
We'll never know why the market got so carried away with the Titans and/or teams playing the Colts, but recognizing that led to a bet on Indianapolis, so we won't complain. Tennessee goes up and down every week, meaning their drop after losing in Indianapolis should create some value to hop back on Tennessee as home underdogs this week.
Speaking of wild perception swings, the Bengals continue to sway heavily. Being three-point favorites at Arizona may have fooled the uninitiated, but Cincinnati's low point in the market should have meant it was time to buy. A 43/100 rating would make the Bengals a pick'em hosting Seattle this week, so there's been some adjustment back up - not quite where they were at their peak.
As a general rule, you could do worse than moving a team one rating point for a cover and one more for a win. That's probably how we got to the Chiefs -3.5 at the Vikings. Minnesota likely should have covered a game that was far closer than the score.
Lastly, the Bears didn't take kindly to being rated as the worst team in the NFL and got a nice road win on Thursday night. At that same rating and with where they were before this week, the Vikings would be -6. Chicago will get bumped out of the bottom spot, and Justin Jefferson's status is up in the air. He's one of a handful of non-quarterbacks who drastically alters his team's rating.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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