MNF best bets: Cowboys-Chargers sure to be wild, start-to-finish sweat

In a famous "Seinfeld" episode, Kramer enters Jerry's apartment and exclaims, "Who wants to have some fun!?" He might as well have been talking about this game instead of merely hitting golf balls into the ocean. The Cowboys and Chargers are built for a wild time - the type of twist-and-turn adventure Jerry, George, and Elaine would find themselves in if they signed up for whatever Kramer was up to.

The point spread crept up early in the week but never touched +3. It's come down from +2.5, possibly on the news of Austin Ekeler's return for the Chargers. Los Angeles gets a boost in the run game, easier throws for potentially big gains when Justin Herbert's under pressure, and should be more efficient in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. In his only game this season, Ekeler had the ball in his hands 20 times for better than eight yards per touch. L.A. went score for score with Miami before we knew what an impressive feat that was. Already without Trevon Diggs, Dallas won't have Leighton Vander Esch's run support at middle linebacker.

The Dallas offense hopes to bounce back after being wholly ineffective in San Francisco. For the season, though, the Cowboys have run for fewer yards per carry than the Chargers without Ekeler. Dak Prescott fell back into his old interception-throwing habit last week, while Herbert has just one turnover this season.

Perhaps most important is the familiarity between coaching staffs - particularly L.A. offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. During his stint in the same role with Dallas, he would've practiced against Dan Quinn and should know how to beat the Cowboys' scheme. While they should know what Moore likes to run, having different personnel with the Chargers and the fact that offense dictates the play while defense reacts means the Bolts should have used their bye week wisely to prepare for this one.

I'd love to forego the Chargers' spread and take the moneyline, but with the Bolts, they have a higher probability than most teams to do everything necessary to win but somehow lose by a point.

Pick: Chargers (+1.5)

Tony Pollard: Under 16.5 rushing attempts (-125)
Dak Prescott: Over 257.5 passing yards (-115)

As a public service note, if receiving props for Quentin Johnston become available between the publish time of this article Monday morning and game time, don't be shy to play the over on anything south of 40 yards. The bye week should've allowed the Chargers to develop their first-round pick into a bigger role, with Mike Williams on IR and both Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton questionable.

The Chargers' defense has been much better against the run this season, but it's still capable of giving up a big gain on the ground. The Bolts have struggled in pass defense against experienced quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins. Look for the Cowboys to lean heavily on the passing game, particularly if they're trailing late. Tony Pollard hasn't been as productive as expected, and he's played more than 70% of snaps just once this season.

Jake Ferguson: Anytime touchdown (+250)

Ekeler's back and capable of scoring all the Chargers' touchdowns, which is no fun for betting anyone else on Los Angeles, and his -150 price isn't worth the risk on someone coming back from injury.

Instead, we'll turn to Ferguson, second on the team in targets and receptions. No one on the Cowboys has a second receiving touchdown yet, but look for Ferguson to get open for touchdown No. 2.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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