NFL Week 6 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
If you were clouded by the assumption that the best teams in the NFL were invincible, you got jolted back to reality this past week. The 49ers and Eagles lost to the Browns and Jets, while the Chiefs and Bills had more trouble than expected with the lowly Broncos and Giants. In two cases, the underdog competed despite playing a backup quarterback, which altered that team's rating in the market and stretched the point spread too far.
This is a reminder that anyone can be beaten, and, unless you're replacing a top-tier starter, an adjustment for a backup quarterback should be tempered. Let's look at what the betting market thought of your favorite team before Week 6 kicked off.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 76 | 60-80 |
| Chiefs | 74 | 60-80 |
| Bills | 74 | 55-75 |
| Dolphins | 71 | 55-75 |
| Eagles | 70 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 68 | 60-80 |
| Ravens | 66 | 50-70 |
| Lions | 60 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 57 | 50-70 |
| Bengals | 56 | 40-75 |
| Jaguars | 54 | 45-65 |
| Seahawks | 51 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 51 | 40-60 |
| Titans | 48 | 35-55 |
| Vikings | 47 | 35-55 |
| Raiders | 45 | 30-50 |
| Colts | 45 | 25-45 |
| Rams | 44 | 35-55 |
| Packers | 44 | 40-60 |
| Buccaneers | 43 | 30-50 |
| Broncos | 42 | 35-55 |
| Patriots | 41 | 35-55 |
| Falcons | 41 | 35-55 |
| Steelers | 41 | 40-60 |
| Commanders | 40 | 35-55 |
| Jets | 40 | 30-50 |
| Texans | 38 | 25-45 |
| Browns | 34 | 30-60 |
| Bears | 29 | 20-40 |
| Cardinals | 25 | 20-40 |
| Panthers | 25 | 25-45 |
| Giants | 24 | 25-45 |
The estimated market rating for the Browns fell to 34/100 without Deshaun Watson as the line went up to as high as -10 for San Francisco. Was Watson playing at a level high enough to warrant a massive drop with P.J. Walker at the helm?
Hindsight being 20/20, we may have fallen too far in love with the idea of the Colts having an experienced quarterback at the helm. A closing line of just Jaguars -4 couldn't have been a result of Jacksonville's rating falling since the team previously beat Buffalo. An inflated Indy rating and a depressed Browns grade made the Colts -4.5, but Cleveland is now a road favorite with both teams appearing to be adjusted back to the middle of their respective range.
How did the Dolphins get to -14 against the Panthers last week? Their rating went up after blowing out the Giants and covering a big number, while the Panthers' rating came down after not covering a big underdog spread in Detroit. Carolina looked like it'd get its first cover of the season after taking a 14-0 lead, but just about everything went wrong after that as the team moved to 0-6 straight up and against the spread.
The Bears aren't as bad as they were rated before beating Washington, so their rating likely went up. This makes it tricky to measure how far the Vikings' market rating fell with Justin Jefferson out. That Bears-Vikings game was ugly enough that it's still hard to determine what to make of Minnesota. Now, Justin Fields appears to be out this coming week.
For one week at least, the Giants took the mantle as the NFL's lowest-rated team. Tyrod Taylor replacing Daniel Jones sent the point spread for Sunday Night Football up to -15.5, which meant New York's rating fell under the Panthers and Cardinals. The G-Men should be back above those teams going into this week's game against the Commanders.
The Bills went over three quarters without scoring at home against the Giants last week, and the Patriots are still nearing double-digit home underdogs. That's exactly how bad it's gotten for New England.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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