Week 7 survivor pick: From sleepless to Seattle
There are two ways to look at the Bills' heart-racing survival on Sunday that might have kept you up that night.
The first is to feel like that was way too close for comfort for a team allegedly supposed to win 91% of the time. It didn't feel like that much of a certainty, as Buffalo survived two final red-zone plays from the Giants to close out a victory.
The second way to look at it is that, while our pick was closer than anyone imagined, if that game was played 100 times, a handful of the 91 wins would be a little dicey. The nine times where the Giants pull off the upset are when the last play goes their way in a game that New York had managed just three field goals going into that final sequence. It never looked like the Giants could win by outscoring Buffalo, and the reason for fading New York last week was because - if push came to shove late - the G-Men weren't likely to convert on a do-or-die play.
Every week until we get knocked out, we've mapped two paths to make it to the end of the season undefeated. As long as one of our entries still stands, we'll use the moneylines for our picks to show the odds of making it the distance traveled along the path. Once we're out, though, we're out.
We could provide a series of theoretical rules to follow - like never take a road team - but the moneyline reflects a club's likelihood of winning each game. We can easily translate that into an implied win probability, listed in descending order in the chart below.
Week 7 moneylines| TEAM | MONEYLINE | IMPLIED PROB. |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | -400 | 80.0% |
| Seahawks | -380 | 79.2% |
| 49ers | -290 | 74.4% |
| Chiefs | -230 | 69.7% |
| Rams | -165 | 62.3% |
| Raiders | -165 | 62.3% |
| Ravens | -160 | 61.5% |
| Buccaneers | -140 | 58.3% |
| Commanders | -130 | 56.5% |
| Browns | -125 | 55.6% |
| Eagles | -125 | 55.6% |
| Saints | -120 | 54.5% |
| Packers | -120 | 54.5% |
| Broncos | +100 | 50.0% |
| Jaguars | +100 | 50.0% |
| Dolphins | +105 | 48.8% |
| Colts | +105 | 48.8% |
| Giants | +110 | 47.6% |
| Falcons | +120 | 45.5% |
| Lions | +135 | 42.6% |
| Bears | +140 | 41.7% |
| Steelers | +140 | 41.7% |
| Chargers | +195 | 33.9% |
| Vikings | +240 | 29.4% |
| Cardinals | +300 | 25.0% |
| Patriots | +320 | 23.8% |
Knocked out in Week 3. Thanks, Ravens. This past week, Gardner Minshew's second start of the season went how we would've liked his first to have gone: poorly.
Survivor Path B| WEEK | TEAM USED | IMPLIEDPROB. |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons | 64.9% |
| 2 | Cowboys | 80.0% |
| 3 | Chiefs | 88.9% |
| 4 | 49ers | 90.9% |
| 5 | Lions | 81.0% |
| 6 | Bills | 90.9% |
| SURVIVOR PROBABILITY | 30.9% |
Based on the teams we've selected, there was a 31% chance of a rollover moneyline parlay winning. It's like winning a bet at +224 odds.
As we reach the second trimester of the season, in a way, the decisions can get easier. We've already used the Bills, 49ers, and Chiefs, so there's only one team left at 70% or better via our moneyline math this week.
The Seahawks pass the test of being a definitive top-18 team - meaning we'd want to use them at some point over the 18 weeks of the season. After sandwiching a bye with two road games, Seattle returns home for the first time in almost a month, with the lingering taste of a loss in Cincinnati providing some focus this week.
Here are Seattle's other home opponents for the rest of the season: Browns, Commanders, 49ers, Eagles, and Steelers. None of those matchups will provide a similarly high implied win probability.
As for the Cardinals, after some initial feistiness, they've lost by two touchdowns or more in three straight games. And the defense looks bad, which shouldn't be surprising considering this unit gave up 439 yards to a Giants team that currently hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in three games.
Pick: Seahawks
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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