NHL Wednesday best bets: Senators should breeze past Ovi's Capitals

Tuesday was a great night on the ice. We won two of three player props as well as both team best bets en route to a very profitable 4-1 evening.

We'll look to keep the ball moving in the right direction with three more plays for Wednesday's small card.

Capitals (+145) @ Senators (-170)

I couldn't be less impressed with what I've seen from the Capitals through two games. They were absolutely steamrolled in their season opener at home, losing 4-0 to the Penguins while getting caved in on the shot counter.

They followed that up with a putrid defensive performance against the Flames. They were outshot 40-23 and needed an all-world effort from Darcy Kuemper to steal a shootout victory.

Outside of the power play, the Capitals have really struggled offensively and look like one of the worst defensive sides in the NHL.

No team has posted a lower expected goals share at five-on-five, while only the Canucks have allowed xG at a higher clip. That's not a recipe for success.

I expect Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and the big guns up front for Ottawa to have a field day against this paper-thin defense.

The likely return of Josh Norris should stress the Capitals even further. He gives the Senators more depth down the middle and another legitimate weapon alongside Drake Batherson on the team's second line.

The Senators should have no problem exploiting the Capitals' defense in this game. So long as Joonas Korpisalo puts forth a respectable performance, the Sens should be able to earn a win inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Senators in regulation (-115)

Alex Ovechkin over 3.5 shots

Ovechkin put up a dud against the Flames last time out, but we're going right back to the well against the Senators. Ottawa has fared well over its first few games of the season, but that stems more from the team's offensive ability than its play without the puck.

The Senators have conceded plenty of shot volume at five-on-five. They currently rank bottom-10 and are sandwiched between the Coyotes and Canucks - not great company.

More importantly, the Senators have taken a lot of penalties. Discipline was a problem a year ago, and it doesn't seem like much has changed. They're spending more than eight minutes a game undermanned, which should be music to Ovechkin's ears.

A large chunk of his shot volume comes from hammering one-timers on the power play. That shouldn't be surprising, considering he legitimately doesn't leave the ice while Washington is on the man advantage.

Ovechkin has played 10:52 of a possible 10:58 on the power play this season. He stays out for the entirety of each opportunity - and there should be plenty against this undisciplined Sens squad.

Odds: -150 (playable to -160)

Dylan Larkin over 3.5 shots

The Red Wings have controlled a healthy share of the shots and chances with Larkin on the ice, and he's been taking a big chunk of them.

Larkin leads the Red Wings in attempts (23), shots (18), and high-danger chances (seven) through three games.

He finds himself in a sneaky good spot against the Penguins. Much like the Senators, they've won games on the back of offense, not defense. Only eight teams have conceded shot attempts at a higher rate than Pittsburgh thus far.

Larkin has gone over his total in all three games thus far. He also hit in all three games against the Penguins last year, combining to record 14 shots on a whopping 32 attempts.

Expect another eventful offensive performance against a Penguins team still adjusting to a lot of new faces.

Odds: -115 (playable to -135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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