NHL Saturday best bets: Predators to upset Maple Leafs

We had another solid night on the ice Friday. We put together a 3-2 evening between our best bets and player props and turned a profit again.

We'll look to keep the train on track with three more plays for Saturday's slate.

Maple Leafs (-145) @ Predators (+125)

Death, taxes, and backing the Predators. I think they've played a lot better than given credit for this season, and I see value in them again at home versus the Maple Leafs.

Nashville has mostly looked good under new head coach Andrew Brunette. Led by Filip Forsberg, the club has threatened at five-on-five while playing the kind of defense that would make GM Barry Trotz proud.

The Preds have conceded just 2.07 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is the best mark in the league. Factor in the strong goaltending behind that defense, and it's no surprise they've conceded just 1.75 goals per 60 at full strength.

The Maple Leafs are a very good team, but they've shown some warts. They've lacked secondary scoring, and the defense has been mediocre.

Those issues haven't looked as noticeable with Joseph Woll between the pipes. The youngster has played shockingly well and leads the league in goals saved above expected.

Unfortunately for Toronto, it likely won't have Woll in net to mask the blemishes. The expectation is Ilya Samsonov will get the nod in goal for this game.

Samsonov has conceded 5.2 goals more than expected through just four appearances. Not only has he failed to cover up Toronto's mistakes, but he's made plenty of his own.

With a strong five-on-five profile, home ice, and a big advantage between the pipes - Juuse Saros is generally as reliable as they come - I see value in the Predators as home underdogs.

Bet: Predators (+125)

Jakob Chychrun over 2.5 shots

Chychrun has logged at least 21:55 of ice time in four of the past five games, headlined by a 28-minute effort last time out. He took full advantage of that workload, firing a whopping nine shots on goal.

Although Chychrun may not flirt with 30 minutes each night, he should routinely play 25-plus moving forward.

The Senators are dealing with ailments on defense. Erik Brannstrom suffered an injury early in Ottawa's last game, which is why so much fell onto Chychrun's plate. Then news came that Thomas Chabot, who played 22 minutes against the Islanders, also suffered an injury and will be out for weeks, if not months.

As a cherry on top, Artem Zub is also banged up. That means three of Ottawa's top five defensemen are sidelined.

Chychrun is a minutes eater who has always generated shots in bulk on the back end. Given the injuries Ottawa is dealing with, Chychrun will get as much ice as he can handle from head coach DJ Smith.

Expect him to make the most of it.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots

Connor is firing on all cylinders for the Jets. He leads the team in goals, points, shot attempts, shots on target, and scoring chances through seven contests.

The shot volume has been strong from Connor, who's averaging a hair under eight attempts per game. That's more than enough to go over his total on any given night, which is why he has hit the over more than he's come up short this season.

Although Connor is a strong five-on-five player, he greatly benefits from his shot being the focal point of Winnipeg's power play. The good news is he has the best matchup imaginable to take advantage of that.

The Canadiens lead the league in shorthanded time on ice per game, and they rank dead last in suppressing expected goals while undermanned. Put simply, Montreal takes a ton of penalties and is quite bad at killing them.

This is a prime matchup for Connor to put up a big shot total.

Odds: -106 (playable to -135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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