NFL OPOY betting: Brown's case for a 3-horse race
The NFL Offensive Player of the Year award market is heating up.
It's been obvious since Week 1 that Christian McCaffrey is still a touchdown machine and Tyreek Hill is still a freak. These two stars quickly separated themselves from the pack early as the award front-runners.
However, A.J. Brown has emerged as a serious contender thanks to his dominant six-week stretch and needs to be heavily considered in what should be a three-horse race.
OPOY odds| Player | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | +135 | 42.6% |
| Tyreek Hill | +135 | 42.6% |
| A.J. Brown | +800 | 11.1% |
Odds via theScore Bet.
Brown was +5000 (2% implied probability) two weeks ago after he hauled in seven balls for 131 yards in the Eagles' Week 6 loss against the Jets. He's added two more games of 130-plus receiving yards and three touchdowns since then, vaulting him up the oddsboard to +800.
With Brown's 130-yard showing against the Commanders on Sunday, the Philadelphia wideout broke Calvin Johnson's record with six straight games of 125 or more receiving yards. He's logged 831 yards and five touchdowns since Week 2.
A.J. Brown's last six games:
- Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 30, 2023
9 catches, 131 yards
9 catches, 175 yards, 2 TD
6 catches, 127 yards
7 catches, 131 yards
10 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD
8 catches, 130 yards, 2 TD
Just an incredible stretch. pic.twitter.com/yzcOxw7WcT
Hill still leads the NFL in receiving yards, but Brown closed the gap to 75. The fact that Brown was able to cut the margin is an impressive feat in itself since Hill had 412 yards receiving after the first three games.
Hill is also leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns with eight, compared to Brown's five.
McCaffrey's second to only Hill in yards from scrimmage this season with 944 and leads everyone in the NFL with 13 touchdowns.
It makes sense why McCaffrey and Hill are co-favorites on the Offensive Player of the Year oddsboard, but should Brown be such a distant third?
Their odds suggest there's roughly a 30% difference in implied probability between Brown's chances versus either McCaffrey's or Hill's. That gap seems far too large given the season Brown is putting together.
The last three wide receivers to win the OPOY - Justin Jefferson (2022), Cooper Kupp (2021), and Michael Thomas (2019) - all led the league in receiving with at least 1,700 yards. Both Hill and Brown are well on their way to exceeding that total.
There's a strong chance Brown will win the OPOY award if he can catch Hill. Brown was +475 to lead the league in receiving yards prior to Week 8 with Hill the favorite at -130. Those odds have shifted further in Brown's favor as he's now +225 to lead the league.
Yes, McCaffrey is having an incredible year, but his output in recent weeks has decreased - he hasn't rushed for more than 55 yards in four consecutive games.
If McCaffrey stops finding the end zone every week and the 49ers continue to struggle (they've lost three straight games), his resume may not look as pretty as it was projected to at the start of the year.
Let's not forget this award is chosen by the voters. Those responsible for selecting a winner may somehow want to reward the Eagles' season.
Jalen Hurts winning MVP would be the obvious choice. He's down to +375 to win the award but has stiff competition with Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa ahead of him on the oddsboard.
If Hurts is edged out by one of the elite AFC quarterbacks but the Eagles still finish as the NFC's top seed, voters may look in Brown's direction to ensure Philadelphia's season is recognized.
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