NFL playoff picture: Odds for who's in, who's out with 10 weeks to go
While the NFL trade deadline never provides the fireworks football fans hope for, it can help paint a picture of how teams view their standing in the league.
However, the betting market often gives better insight into which teams are actual threats of making the playoffs, and which are pretenders and perhaps should have been sellers.
Let's take a look at each team's odds of making and missing the playoffs, starting with the AFC.
Odds for AFC teams to make, miss playoffs| Team | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -4000 | +1800 |
| Jaguars | -1600 | +900 |
| Dolphins | -1600 | +900 |
| Ravens | -550 | +425 |
| Bills | -200 | +170 |
| Bengals | -165 | +140 |
| Browns | -115 | -105 |
| Chargers | +155 | -185 |
| Steelers | +170 | -200 |
| Jets | +220 | -270 |
| Texans | +300 | -380 |
| Colts | +500 | -700 |
| Titans | +500 | -700 |
| Raiders | +1100 | -2000 |
| Broncos | +1200 | -2500 |
| Patriots | +4000 | -20000 |
Odds via theScore Bet.
The Chiefs, Jaguars, and Dolphins appear to be shoo-ins to clinch a playoff spot, with the latter two given an implied probability of 94.1% to advance.
The Ravens and their AFC North-leading 6-2 record are at -550, or an 84.6% shot. It would take a drastic collapse for any of the aforementioned teams to not make the playoffs.
The AFC gets interesting at the Bills, who are -200 to make and +170 to miss. Buffalo sits a game back of the Dolphins in the AFC East, but oddsmakers believe the club has a substantially worse chance than Miami - 27.4% to be exact - of advancing. That seems like a wide gap in odds with so many games remaining.
Oddsmakers also suggest the two final wild-card spots in the AFC will be between the Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Steelers, and potentially the Jets.
A healthy Joe Borrow led the Bengals to an impressive road win over the 49ers in Week 8. If Cincinnati is back to being the team everyone thought it was prior to the season, then -165 to make the playoffs seems like value.
The Chargers play the Jets on Monday night in Week 9, which, based on the odds above, could have significant playoff implications. Both teams are on the outside looking in at the moment and cannot afford to lose ground on the others in the hunt.
Odds for NFC teams to make, miss playoffs| Team | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | N/A | +4000 |
| Lions | -7500 | +2000 |
| Cowboys | -2500 | +1200 |
| 49ers | -1800 | +1000 |
| Seahawks | -400 | +320 |
| Falcons | -190 | +155 |
| Saints | -165 | +140 |
| Buccaneers | +200 | -240 |
| Vikings | +240 | -290 |
| Rams | +270 | -340 |
| Packers | +425 | -550 |
| Commanders | +900 | -1800 |
| Bears | +1800 | -4000 |
| Giants | +4000 | -20000 |
| Cardinals | +4000 | -20000 |
| Panthers | +4000 | -20000 |
The Eagles, Lions, Cowboys, and 49ers are virtual locks to make the playoffs. You can probably toss the NFC West-leading Seahawks into that group as well with their odds implying they have an 80% chance of reaching the playoffs.
The Falcons and Saints are in a battle to win the weak NFC South. One of these teams is likely to end up in the playoffs, perhaps with a below-.500 record. The Buccaneers are also in the running for the division title with a 3-4 record.
Since the Cowboys, 49ers, and Seahawks are likely to advance, there's really only one wild-card spot up for grabs.
The Vikings currently hold that position but lost Kirk Cousins for the season to put their hopes in doubt. Prior to their Week 8 victory over the Packers, the Vikings were +155 to make the playoffs. After the Cousins news was announced, their odds plummeted to +300 - a 14.2% implied probability swing ... and that accounts for their Week 8 win.
However, Minnesota made a trade with the Cardinals to acquire Josh Dobbs, and its odds of making the playoffs have now settled at +240. The betting market believes that trading for Dobbs increased the Vikings' chances of making the playoffs by 4.4%.
The Commanders were the biggest sellers at the trade deadline. They traded away edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat and are now +900 to make the playoffs with a 3-5 record.
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