NFL Week 9 best bets: Showdown Sunday

If you bet Philadelphia early enough in Week 8, you didn't want Ron Rivera (who once asked to be called "Analytical Ron" instead of "Riverboat Ron") to play it by numbers and go for two. Luckily for those with Eagles -6.5 - like the first Commanders-Eagles meeting - he foolishly didn't. If you had Eagles -7, you accepted the push, something easy to swallow given that our other four best bets against the spread went 4-0, pushing the season-long ATS record in this space to 23-11-3 (67.6%).

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

TEAM	SPREAD
Bears	+8.5
Seahawks	+6
Vikings	+4.5
Cowboys	+3
Jets	+3.5

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Chiefs -1.5

I'm unconcerned by the market move toward the Dolphins from Chiefs -2.5 because, truthfully, that's where I'd expect the point spread to be based on previous lines for each team. However, on the field, we go by a rule you might remember from such games as the 2023 AFC championship and Super Bowl LVII: Don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in games lined under a field goal.

The winner of this contest in Germany gets a leg up on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, so we should get a focused Chiefs team, and that's not a group I mess with. The Dolphins - once fully healthy and up to speed on Vic Fangio's defense - will be a problem when we get to a potential postseason rematch. But, for now, Kansas City's defense has shown it can match up with Miami like the Bills and Eagles did.

Patriots -3

Maybe we got away with one by backing the Dolphins at a big number last week since the Patriots' defense did a decent job holding the Fins to 5.3 yards per play. But, as expected, New England's offense couldn't keep up. Against the Commanders this week, there's less urgency to race to 30 points. New England will get to Sam Howell - sacked 41 times this season - as everyone else has.

On the other side of the ball, Washington's bread-and-butter - the defensive line - is half as scary with Montez Sweat and Chase Young dealt this week. With more time than he would have, Mac Jones can expose the middle of the Commanders' defensive backfield. We can add this game to the card since this line dropped enough for the insurance of a push should the Patriots win by a field goal.

Texans -2.5

In Year 1 of the Texans' rebuild with the coach and quarterback in place, it shouldn't be surprising that the team is at its best at home against mediocre competition. Winning this type of game is how Houston will get to six or seven victories, a respectable number for a team lined at 5.5 wins before the season.

It's a small sample size, but the Texans have given up 6.1 yards per pass attempt at home compared to 7.3 on the road. The going should be tough for Baker Mayfield after three straight losses in which the offense varied between one-dimensional and zero-dimensional.

Giants +2

If the best case for backing the Raiders is that they're energized by being rid of Josh McDaniels, how do we account for their three wins? On a short week, with travel, it's hard to imagine their offense suddenly clicks with rookie Aidan O'Connell starting, especially since the Giants' defense has been stingy the last three weeks against Josh Allen, Howell, and Zach Wilson.

New York's offense is hoping injured offensive tackles Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal can return and protect Daniel Jones from Maxx Crosby. Saquon Barkley and Wan'Dale Robinson can give Jones the quick-twitch options the quarterback was missing earlier this season.

Bengals -2

If you're a regular to our NFL content, you know we've got concerns about the legitimacy of the Bills' rating in the market, as they've failed to cover every game since losing a trio of top defenders for the season. Meanwhile, after a significant drop in the Bengals' rating due to Joe Burrow's early season issues, anything under a field goal indicates there's still value left in backing the home side against a team it dominated in the playoffs last year despite missing a handful of starters on the offensive line.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Seahawks (+210) over Ravens

The Seahawks offense is starting to incorporate talented rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo, and Zach Charbonnet alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. That's a dangerous group supporting Geno Smith, the prototypical high-variance signal-caller to back on the moneyline as a big underdog or fade as a big favorite. Seattle will take its shots on offense and try to turn over Lamar Jackson. At better than +200, the Seahawks are worth a look for an upset bet.

Best 6-point teaser

Browns (-2) / Panthers (+8.5)

The Cardinals provided bettor nightmare fuel with a backdoor cover against the Ravens. While I don't think they'll do that again, let's avoid that sort of spread catastrophe by pulling the Browns - who we like to win outright - down under a field goal.

Of the nine games that opened with a 2.5-point spread, almost all have moved one way or another, suggesting market disagreement with the opener. However, the Colts-Panthers line has barely moved. The more efficient the point spread, the better it is for a teaser leg, especially one daring Indianapolis to win on the road by two scores.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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